Prediction for gusts over 60 mph Monday night and Tuesday
Weather forecast for the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles, January 18 through 20, 2021. NWS.
Conditions in Southern California are setting up for what is being called “the strongest wind event of the season.” Red Flag Warnings are in effect in the greater Los Angeles area from Monday evening to 4 a.m. Wednesday. Forecasters are predicting strong damaging winds, with gusts to 60 mph that could blow down large objects such as trees and power lines.
The forecast for the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles calls for sustained winds Monday night of 22 to 41 mph gusting at 32 to 61 mph, with the strongest gusts after midnight. On Tuesday winds will continue to gust around 60 and then taper off Tuesday night to the 40s. During daylight hours the relative humidity will be in the low 20s through Wednesday.
This could lead to large wildland fires that are very resistant to control.
Let’s be careful out there.
Red Flag Warnings in California, Jan. 18, 2021. NWS.Weather stations with Red Flag (red) and those flirting with red flag conditions (yellow), at 1:06 p.m. PST, Jan. 18, 2021. NWS.
The winds are going to be breezy to very strong, off and on through Thursday
Hot-Dry-Windy forecast for Southern California, January 16, 2021
After record high temperatures were set Friday in multiple Southern California locations, Red Flag Warnings continue on Saturday. Residents in Santa Clarita can expect the temperature to reach 83 degrees today, with the humidity in the low teens, and 22 mph winds out of the northeast gusting to 33. Strong winds will continue through Saturday night but will taper off a bit Sunday, 18 to 22 mph gusting out of the northeast at 28 to 34.
Monday afternoon a strong offshore pressure gradient will begin growing, bringing very strong winds out of the northeast again, with the humidity in the low 20s and teens.
Wind speeds next week:
Monday afternoon: 24 mph gusting at 32
Monday night: 25 to 47 gusting at 37 to 62
Tuesday: 47 gusting at 63
Tuesday night: 29 to 41 gusting at 38 to 54
Wednesday: 18 to 26 gusting at 24 to 34
At least two large air tankers, 01 and 02, were flown in from Missoula on Friday to be available if needed by firefighters. Two Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) mapping aircraft are also on standby.
Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) aircraft.Red Flag Warnings, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Weather stations in Southern California experiencing Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Santa Clarita, California Wx forecast, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.
And, $1 billion for forest health and reduction of fire risk
Satellite photo by GOES-17 of smoke created by the Apple Fire in southern California at 7 a.m. PDT August 2, 2020. NASA.
The California Governor’s proposed budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 asks for 16 additional firefighting hand crews. Governor Gavin Newsom also wants to establish 14 more California Conservation Corps (CCC) crews that are often assigned at incident command posts on fires to assist with Logistics and other support functions.
The budget document says, “The fire crews will enable CAL FIRE to respond to larger and more damaging wildfires throughout the fire season and complete priority fuel reduction projects to reduce wildfire risk in fire-threatened areas.”
One of the justifications for the additional personnel was the “existing population trends” in prisons that has reduced the number of inmates available for firefighting.
Forest Health
The Budget also includes $1 billion for a comprehensive package of resources to increase the pace and scale of forest health activities and decrease fire risk, including $581 million for CAL FIRE in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
New Helicopters
Funds to replace CAL FIRE’s 12 Vietnam War-era Huey helicopters with Sikorsky S70i Firehawks have already been received and allocated. Three new ships have been deployed so far, and it is estimated that four more will be put into operation sometime during the 2021 fire season (for a total of seven). CAL FIRE expects to put the remaining five helicopters into the fleet in 2022.
C-130H air tankers
The Budget includes $48.4 million to support the phasing in of seven large air tankers, C-130Hs. The 2019 and 2020 Budget Acts included funding for the aircraft that will be transferred from the federal government starting in 2021-22. The air tankers, currently owned by the U.S. Coast Guard, are being retrofitted by the U.S. Air Force utilizing $150 million in federal funding. CAL FIRE is continuing to prepare for the arrival of these aircraft by training and certifying new dedicated flight crews and mechanics, and cross‑training and certifying its existing pilots to fly the aircraft to assist firefighters. CAL FIRE is working with its federal partners to meet the expected 2021-22 arrival of the air tankers.
Research
The budget also includes $5 million to provide a research grant to California State University, San Marcos to study enhanced firefighting equipment and strategies to protect firefighters from conditions present during wildfires in the wildland urban interface.
What’s next
The Governor’s proposed budget will be considered by the legislature and will be subject to modifications before a final budget is passed.
Firefighters responding to the Apple Fire. Discovery Channel.
I knew the Discovery Channel’s new series, CAL FIRE, was going to be interesting when the Sunday night premier episode started with a close up of the CAL FIRE director describing his greatest regret.
"My greatest regret in this job is the time I didn't spend with my family. It's hard to describe to somebody why mom or dad can't be there. We run into places that people should't be. And we do it selflessly as if they're our family members. This job is all encompassing. Firefighting is about sacrifice." Thom Porter, Director of CAL FIRE.
The limited series was filmed by camera crews and reporters who embedded, at least in episode 1, with engine crews. Presumably they went through basic fire training and were outfitted with personal protective equipment since they at times were shoulder to shoulder on the fire line with firefighters who had to tell the camera operator to “watch yourself.”
Apple Fire, Engine 3175
The first engine featured was 3175 in Riverside County, California. Engineer Aaron Dudley is on screen often, talking about his family and what it is like to work for 72 hours on a wildfire.
“I could get a regular job, but I love this one. I definitely could not have peace of mind out there without strong family support.”
The camera was rolling in the station when the crew was dispatched to the Apple Fire which started near Cherry Valley July 31, five or ten miles north of San Jacinto. It eventually burned more than 38,000 acres. Cameras mounted inside the engine filmed the crew and recorded their conversations as they drove to the fire.
After they arrived and worked for a while, the engine ran out of water so they protected a structure using the resident’s garden hose.
Several days after the fire started cameras captured crews igniting a large backfire out ahead of the east side to prevent it from spreading into the Morongo Valley.
Firefighters igniting back fire on the Apple Fire. Discovery Channel
“Our objective is to hold it right here at this dozer line,” explained Captain David Mendoza. “So instead of having 10 feet of protection, we’re going to have half a mile of protection.”
At one point the back fire was burning more intensely than desired, so they had a helicopter drop water from a fairly high altitude — not to put it out, but to slow the spread and decrease the intensity, making it easier to maintain control.
Ponderosa Fire, Engine 47
A camera crew was also in Northern California’s Shasta County as Engine 47 was dispatched to the Ponderosa Fire. It was burning in timber, very different from the Apple Fire which was primarily brush.
When the crew was struggling on the fire’s edge to charge a hose lay with water a helmet cam captured the action.
Firefighters initial attack the Ponderosa Fire. Discovery Channel.
As the flames spread closer to the hose that lay flat with no water, we hear, “Come on boys! Double time it! When you get water take off running”, meaning, when you get water at the nozzle, apply it along the fire’s edge at a fast pace.
“Our life is going to be miserable in a minute if you don’t hurry up.” “We’ve got a busted hose”. “Oh (bleep).”
Firefighters initial attack the Ponderosa Fire. Discovery Channel.
The verdict
The Discovery Channel did an admirable job of capturing a few examples of what wildland firefighters see while actually on a fire, and as Engineer Dudley explains, what they think and how the job impacts a family. It is not a complete picture in 42 minutes, of course, but it is a brief glimpse into some aspects of the job.
The production values were very good and the cinematographers recorded, at times, impressive flames and smoke columns — eye candy, to some. Yes, fires at times can be beautiful.
The 42 minutes of Episode 1 were interesting and I will set my device to record more. But, having been a firefighter, I am naturally drawn toward what was my passion for 33 years. Having video cameras and microphones WITH the personnel as they fight fire without an engine visible is something not often seen.
We’ll have to see if every episode shows pretty much the same thing, putting the wet stuff on the red stuff. Maybe if they can generate interest in two or three firefighters with interesting story lines it could add another element. This is a niche in television, wildland firefighting, however there are lots of niche TV shows that are successful on cable channels.
But there will probably be one or two firefighters who will watch the show and try to demonstrate their knowledge by criticizing what they saw on the screen.
You can watch the full version of Episode 1 at the Discovery Channel, plus two shorter episodes, 105 and 106, seven and eight minutes long, about the Glass, Blue Ridge, and Silverado Fires that burned in southern California in 2020.
Marin County fire history 1917-2020. The blue areas were all prior to 1980. NIFC map.
Many residents and government officials in Marin County recognize the importance of evacuation planning, but there is no agreement on which agency has the responsibility. In March voters approved a parcel tax that would raise about $19 million each year for the newly formed Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority (WPA), but the county’s Civil Grand Jury ruled in December that the agency’s plans do not adequately address the issue.
Marin County, outlined in red. (Google)
From the Marin Independent Journal:
Part of that funding will go toward studying evacuation routes, creating evacuation maps and clearing vegetation along narrow Marin roads. But the agency does not have the authority or the funding to take on infrastructure projects that could create safer roads for people fleeing wildfires, the grand jury said.
“The grand jury is concerned that Marin’s public may have a false sense of security regarding evacuation routes, thinking that all issues relating to the matter will be handled by the new government agency,” the report says.
While Marin County fire Chief Jason Weber agreed that the wildfire authority doesn’t have the funding to take on road infrastructure projects, he said the agency is taking the initial step in addressing Marin’s evacuation safety problem.
Marin County, population 258,826, is bordered on the west by the Pacific Ocean and stretches from the Golden Gate Bridge north to Bodega Bay and east to Novato and San Pablo Bay.
Evacuation planning will likely point out a need for road infrastructure projects, for which the WPA does not have funding. The Transportation Authority of Marin, or TAM, is the only agency in the county with access to funding and authority over countywide transportation projects. The grand jury recommended that a representative from TAM serve as a non-voting member of the WPA.
Marin County Civil Grand Jury, Wildfire Preparedness: A New Approach, Appendix C, April 25, 2019.
Fire officials in Marin County have identified “choke points” where residents are likely to get caught in congestion when evacuating from wildfires. Since many of those run through multiple jurisdictions, the grand jury said TAM should serve as the coordinating agency but TAM officials “continue to deny that the agency has any role or responsibility for considering evacuation needs in its transportation projects.”
Community infrastructure and planning was one of the six categories of actions Wildfire Today pointed out in April, 2019 that must be taken to reduce the impact of wildfires on communities. That category includes:
Road and driveway width, wide enough for large fire trucks
Turnarounds at the end of roads
Signage, and
Emergency water supply.
The other five categories that need to be considered in fire-prone communities are home spacing/lot size; envelope of the structure itself; home ignition zone; wildland-urban interface; and fire codes.
Have you ever wondered what goes on behind the scenes as meals are being prepared by the catering services that provide food for firefighters on large wildland fires?
A journalist from the southern United States drove to Oregon in 2019 to embed with one of the 16 companies that run 29 federally contracted mobile food-service units specializing in fire-camp cuisine. He was hoping to get an inside look at what it was like to work at fire camp.
Jeff Winkler had previous experience working in “slop joints, shopping-center fusion, hippie shacks, and fine dining.” His current occupation, according to The Atlantic which published his long-form article about his adventure, is working as a trash collector back in the South.
During his 19 days feeding firefighters on the South Fire west of Red Bluff in Northern California, Mr. Winkler started in “freight” unloading deliveries from the Sysco semi that dropped off supplies, churning out hundreds of sack lunches assembly-line-style in the semi reefer, deep cleaning, and odd jobs. He described it as “soul-suckingly monotonous”, but after two days he moved up to the kitchen to work for Ruby, the head cook. On his 18th day he found himself in the head cook position.
Here are some excerpts:
Ruby and her second-in-command, Josie, a petite collegiate blonde not a day over 22, were scrambling. For Josie, it was literal. She was quietly pouring bags of yellow liquid egg into a tilt skillet and stirring the soup into a solid using a three-foot-long stainless-steel paddle.
Tilt Skillet
The ovens, I was told, were on the fritz, so Ruby had me drop bacon into the deep fryers.
It didn’t take me long to understand that we were cooking stomach anchors, not taste-bud tinglers. Instead of foie gras and bordelaise, our crew made large batches of heavy sustenance: things such as well-done chicken, powdered potatoes, instant gravy. Canned veggies were heated and dressed in brown sugar and spices. The liquid for Josie’s scrambled eggs came in 20-pound bags, and deep-frying bacon was an hour-long process. This was high-volume catering. The situation, and the contract, demanded it.
The Overhead Boomers were always the first to eat. Their impatience when waiting for us to open for service is a running joke among disaster catering crews. They also ate like picky children: “Nah, I don’t want no vegetables.” Almost all of the young bright-eyed Cs [California Conservation Corps] accepted their plates and ate like college freshmen. We got to know who the vegetarians were, and had their plates ready in advance.
Before the day-13 dinner rush, we’d made the steaks and shipped them out to spike camp but, for whatever reason, had forgotten to package up an entire batch. I found the deep-sixed pan of cooked steaks cooling in one of the fritzed ovens just a little after dinner service had started.
