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Two fuels and fire behavior advisories for Colorado

Bill GabbertJune 21, 2013April 25, 2016UncategorizedColorado, fire behavior advisory, safety, weather4 Comments

The Rocky Mountain Geographic Area and the Upper Colorado River Fire Management Unit on the Colorado Western Slope issued two Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories today. Below are the complete texts of both:

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“Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory
Western Slope of Colorado
06/21/2013

Subject: Western Colorado is in the third year of drought. The situation is predicted to persist or intensify through July. There is increased risk of large fire development and intense fire behavior. Dry, heavy fuels at higher elevations could pose a greater risk of active fire behavior.

Discussion: The wet spring pattern that occurred during April and May has provided a brief reprieve. Live and dead fuel moistures are quickly returning to a condition that will support large fire growth.

Forecasts do not offer the prospect of live or dead fuels conditions improving through July.

Difference from normal conditions: Fuels are described by fire managers as being deceptively green. The visual greenness being observed can lessen the sense of fire potential. Live fuels, which had shown some improvement from late spring precipitation, are drying. On the Western Slope of Colorado, 100FM fuels are setting historically low values for the date, nearing the 3rd percentile, and moving into the range associated with historic large fires. Long-term drying has made large, higher elevation fuels, available as well.

Concerns to Firefighters and the Public:

Recent large fires on the Front Range and Western Slope have displayed intense and/or extreme fire behavior.
Long-range spotting, fire whorls, extreme fireline intensity and high winds have been observed and will continue to be control problems on both wildland and urban interface incidents.
Local preparedness planning and cooperation should be on-going.
Management of suppression resources rest and recovery as activity increases.

Mitigation Measures: Strategies for dealing with each of the specific circumstances listed above include using Predictive Service¡¦s forecasts of higher potential for large fire occurrence, rapid initial attack in those high risk areas, and daily fire and fuels briefings to suppression personnel.
Continue reading “Two fuels and fire behavior advisories for Colorado”

Another Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory — this time, Arizona and New Mexico

Bill GabbertJune 18, 2013August 25, 2019UncategorizedArizona, fire behavior, fire behavior advisory, New Mexico, safety, weather

One of the Predictive Services offices has issued another Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. The last one, issued June 10, was for California. This new one, dated June 16, is for portions of Arizona and New Mexico.

The advisory does not mention the “Southwest Monsoon,” an event that typically starts in early July and generally begins to draw the curtain on the fire season in Arizona, New Mexico, West Texas, southern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

Below is the full text of the advisory.

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“Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory

Arizona and New Mexico

June 16, 2013

Subject: Persistent multi-year drought across much of New Mexico and Arizona has dropped fuel moistures to critically low levels in the large dead and live foliar fuels. These critically low fuel moistures increase available fuel loading which contributes to and supports active crown fire in timber fuels when critical fire weather is present.

Discussion: The multi-year drought has reduced the fine fuel loading across most of the region so the focus for this advisory will be the timber fuels within the region.

Difference from normal conditions: Drought creates more available fuel in timber fuel types which will increase fire intensities, crown fire potential and difficulty of control for fire suppression resources. Short duration rain events provide only short term fuel moisture improvement in timber litter fuels (1, 10, and 100 hour dead fuels). Fuels rebound quickly to previous dryness levels. Short duration rain events provide no fuel moisture recovery in large dead and live foliar fuels.

Concerns to Firefighters and the Public:

Surface fire will quickly transition to crown fire and only requires low to moderate surface fire intensity to transition.
Active/running crown fire has produced long range spotting up to one mile under the influence of an unstable atmosphere.
Active fire behavior can extend well into night and early morning hours even with moderate RH recovery.
Thunderstorm activity will create a mosaic pattern of surface fuel moistures. Surface fire intensity and fire behavior may change abruptly when fires cross these boundaries of moist and dry surface fuels.

Mitigation Measures:

Local briefings need to be thorough and highlight specific fire environment conditions. These include but are not limited to local weather forecasts, Pocket Cards, ERC’s, live and dead fuel moistures, and special fuel conditions such as drought and insect mortality
Lookouts, both on the ground and in the air, can help identify the initiation and location of crown fire. They can also provide the location of resultant spot fires from active crown fire.
Firefighters should acknowledge that fire growth and fire behavior they encounter this year may exceed anything they have experienced before due to the drought factor. Normal strategies and tactics may need to be adjusted to account for the drought factor.

Area of Concern: Please reference the map posted on the National Fuel Advisory Page.

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/fuels_fire-danger/fuels_fire-danger.htm

The timber fuels within this area of concern are the target for this fire behavior advisory.”

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(End of text)

Thanks go out to Ken

Fuels and fire behavior advisory for California

Bill GabbertJune 10, 2013April 25, 2016UncategorizedCalifornia, fire behavior advisory, safety

The following advisory for California was issued by “Predictive Services” today:

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Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory

California*

June 10, 2013

Subject: Low live and dead fuel moistures, along with persistent drought have created the potential for active to extreme fire behavior in many parts of the state.

Discussion: All of California is experiencing drought conditions. Effects of lower than normal live and dead fuel moistures and observed fire behavior for 2013 are the focus of this advisory.

Difference From Normal Conditions: Drought conditions ranging from abnormally dry to severe exist across California. The drought is expected to persist or intensify. The entire state is deficient in rainfall and snow pack, resulting in fuels that are 4-8 weeks ahead of normal drying/curing rates.

Concerns to Firefighters:

Energy Release Component (ERC) at numerous weather stations set record highs already this year and running well above normal in most cases. Expect increased fire intensity and spread rates in these areas. Early season extreme fire behavior has been observed in both light and heavy fuels. Anticipate increased spread rates, spotting, and active night time burning.
The combination of persistent drought and record-low rainfall and snowpack amounts has led to very low live and dead fuel moistures. Low 1000-hour fuel moistures have been evidenced by complete consumption of dead fuels on several recent fires. Live fuel moistures have already reached critical levels in many areas especially in Southern California. Expect fires to ignite easier and spread faster. Anticipate higher resistance to control in all fuel types.
Excessively dry fuels and receptive fuel beds are resulting in fire behavior that is not deterred by what firefighters would consider normal barriers. Be mindful of what you use as a barrier or safety zone.
Fires are burning actively even under conditions of high relative humidity. Already this year, California has experienced large fire activity and multiple team deployments. California will likely experience an extended fire season. It is important to be mindful of and manage fatigue for all resources.

Everyone, every day, returns home safely.

Mitigation Measures:

Local and inbound fire personnel need to be aware that fire behavior across the state is exceeding normal expectations for this time of the year. Local briefings need to be thorough and highlight specific fire environment conditions. These include but are not limited to local weather forecasts, Pocket Cards, ERC’s, live and dead fuel moistures, and special fuel conditions such as mortality, Sudden Oak Death and frost killed brush, etc.
Suppression actions need to be based on good anchor points, escape routes, and safety zones. Remember LCES. Experienced lookouts are essential under these conditions.
Base all actions on current and expected behavior of the fire. Augment initial attack resources as incident activity dictates.
Review the most current Northern and Southern California 7-day Significant Fire Potential along with Daily, Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks at: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm

*Area of Concern: The area of concern is the State of California with the exception of 3 Northern California Predictive Service Areas: North Coast, Northeastern, and Eastside. A map showing the areas of concern described in this advisory can be found at: National Fuel Advisories

Issued: June 10, 2013 (Note this advisory will be in effect for 14 days and will be reviewed/updated at that time.

Wildfire potential and fire behavior advisories

Bill GabbertOctober 1, 2012August 25, 2019Uncategorizedfire behavior advisory, potential, weather2 Comments

Fuels and fire behavior advisories

Five geographic areas have released updated fuels and fire behavior advisories: Northwest, Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain, Western Great Basin, and northern California.

Wildfire potential

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for October, 2012 through January, 2013. If it is correct, Minnesota, the northwest, and portions of California and Iowa will be active in October. After that, it’s southern California.

Here is an excerpt from the NIFC report:

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Significant Fire Potential

For October above normal significant fire potential is predicted across the northwestern quarter of the U.S. including portions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California. Above normal significant fire potential also exists across portions of the upper Midwest. The mountains and foothills of central and Southern California will also experience above normal significant fire potential. Portions of the Hawaiian Islands continue to see elevated significant fire potential as well.
The southeastern U.S. will continue to see periodic precipitation events and reduced significant fire potential.
The rest of the country will have normal significant fire potential.
As the fall leaf drop season develops the potential exists for a return to above normal significant fire potential across portions of the Appalachian Mountains.
Also during mid-October through early November Southern California will likely experience periodic off shore flow events leading to elevated significant fire potential.

Fuels and fire behavior advisory for central Idaho

Bill GabbertSeptember 9, 2011August 25, 2019Uncategorizedfire behavior advisory

The video the document refers to is below:

Here is the description of the video:

Footage taken on the Salt Fire August 29, 2011, on the Salmon-Challis National Forest in Idaho. The fire made a 1-1.5 mile run in about 1 hour and 15 minutes starting in the bottom of Goodluck Creek drainage burning towards the south. The fire burned in a mountain pine beetle bug killed lodgepole pine stand. The area had previously been mapped as an area with “Extreme Crown Fire Risk” by the Salmon-Challis N. F. The fire size at the time of the footage was about 2,600 acres. Footage taken from above Woodtick Creek drainage.

In case you’re curious about the Salt fire shown in the video southwest of Salmon, Idaho, it is currently mapped at 17,567 acres. Here is an overview from InciWeb:

Lightning started the Salt Fire on Thursday, August 25, 2011. The fire is 16 miles southwest of Salmon, Idaho, burning in a rugged area of the Salmon-Challis National Forest with large areas of beetle-killed trees. Firefighters are using a variety of strategies to manage the fire, including direct attack, indirect attack and point protection. A mix of these strategies will be used to protect values in the fire’s path in a combination that provides the highest probability of success while minimizing responder exposure to risk. The goal of the incident management team is to manage the Salt Fire in such a way that there are no serious injuries or fatalities, no critical values have been adversely impacted and the public is supportive of fire management operations.

We believe the advisory was written on September 6, 2011. A suggestion for future advisories: adding the date and the author would be helpful.