Risky science: why connecting research to application matters

There is not much benefit in producing science that just sits on a shelf. Effective science must extend beyond publication and address real-world needs argues Lynn Johnston, a Forest Fire Research Specialist with Natural Resources Canada and the Canadian Forest Service, in an editorial for the International Journal of Wildland Fire.

While reading journal articles in my roles as a wildland fire scientist and an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Wildland Fire, I find the papers that grab my interest and inspire deeper thinking are those that have a very strong connection between the science presented and the real-world benefits that can come from applying that science.

When studies articulate how results can be applied and what benefits may arise, readers are better able to understand the practical relevance and potential influence of the work. This is especially important in wildland fire research, where risk – defined as the combination of likelihood and impacts – is inherently tied to societal outcomes. Fire poses significant threats to human life, infrastructure and ecosystems, and effective decision-making relies on robust scientific support. Consequently, research that contributes to risk reduction carries particular importance.

Covering how results of a study have relevance to the real-world is a standard part of a research paper. But this discussion should aim to be substantive, going beyond a perfunctory statement relegated to the closing lines of the discussion section. Statements along the lines of ‘the results of this study can be used in fire management’ are common, but when added to a paper as a placeholder for a more genuine and thorough discussion, they lack sufficient specificity to be actionable. Concrete guidance could include things such as specifically how the results can support adaptive or proactive risk reduction, who might find the work useful, what kind of decisions can the science inform and what other information is needed.

Communicating science through publication

Communicating the value of new results, approaches, and scientific knowledge in risk research is crucial. Scientific publishing plays a critical role in this – it is central to broadly sharing knowledge and ultimately advancing innovation and discovery. It brings a level of quality control to the scientific record as papers are vetted through the peer review process. It ultimately promotes transparency and reproducibility in science. Publishing is also very much ingrained in measuring academic achievement, which motivates researchers to publish for improved success in obtaining research funding and for career progression.

However, publication alone is insufficient to ensure uptake by practitioners and decision-makers. Even in a hypothetical situation where scientists have produced ‘the best’ model, or ‘complete’ knowledge, not much benefit will be produced if the science just sits on a shelf. Effective science must extend beyond publication, with research designed to address real-world needs and integrated into broader processes of application and implementation. In this context, publication should be viewed as one component of a larger knowledge-to-action continuum rather than the endpoint.

Fire risk information overload

Fire risk has long been a priority topic across the scientific community. Scanning through International Journal of Wildland Fire issues since its inception in 1991 shows early inquiries into weather and fire activity, fuel moisture and fire behavior, development of fire danger systems, fire spread modeling, fire impacts – much of this work ultimately is fueled by the need for understanding and managing wildland fire risk.

Looking at International Journal of Wildland Fire publications over the years, there has been an increase in the number of publications that use the term ‘risk’, easily keeping pace with the rapid increase in overall number of papers being published. Moreover, there has been a notable change around the late 2000s to early 2010s where the number of papers that focus on fire risk as a major component of the paper, have ‘risk’ in the title of the article, or use the term ‘risk’ in the more specific natural hazard risk analysis context become much more prevalent. What was once a relatively niche topic is now a dominant and widespread focus within the journal and across the broader literature.

Annual number of publications (including article types: research article, review, or research note) in the International Journal of Wildland Fire from 1991 to 2025. The term ‘risk’ may be used in many ways, this includes all uses found in title, abstract, or main text. *Note: the year 1999 has no data as there were no issues that year.

The information overload is expected to continue in the future. At the same time, technology and capacity for intensely data-heavy and sophisticated assessments and detailed modeling are rapidly developing. Availability of more and more data will enable real-time and dynamic risk assessments. This could lead to a level of support for decision making and planning that would have been unimaginable at the beginning of many current careers in the field.

Since there is so much fire risk science and much more to come, it is worth asking how much of this work is ultimately applied and whether the abundance of publications effectively addresses the problems relevant to end users. How is all this work used and who is using it? The reality is that science uptake and implementation cannot possibly hope to keep up with the rapidly growing body of research outputs. This means it is even more essential to effectively communicate research applications and strive for improved uptake and implementation.

Considerations when publishing

When focusing on putting out scientific papers, there are considerations that can set up research for success in implementation, such as:

  • Formally aligning research priorities with end-user priorities in research planning to strengthen relevance.
  • Capitalizing on insight from personal and professional connections built with end-users, science communicators, and boundary organizations.
  • Use of multiple ways of scoping and framing research topics to broaden potential impact.
  • Inclusion of communication, engagement, implementation, and knowledge exchange activities in research proposals.
  • Cover how scientific results can be used when drafting manuscripts in a specific and detailed way by including a thorough discussion, an example of implementation, a case study demonstrating use, or mentioning what next steps might lead to impact.

Going beyond the research paper

It is important to acknowledge that publishing science (and more broadly, the knowledge system of science) is just one tool available to share knowledge and reduce fire risk on the ground. To extend fire risk science beyond text on a page, various actions to promote the utility of science can be pulled from existing frameworks for knowledge exchange, best practices in implementation, and guides on technology transfer. One approach that can help close the research-practice gap is science communication using multiple strategies. Another key is to foster knowledge exchange opportunities. Significant benefits can be achieved through communication, collaboration, and reciprocal learning between researchers and end-users of science, especially when done early and often throughout the research process.

Looking to the lessons learned from past efforts in navigating published science to implementation in fire risk management can be very informative in guiding science implementation. There are many examples of implemented science – including various fire danger products, risk assessment systems, property hazard reduction programs, operational resource modeling, and air quality warnings. There’s quite a lot of work that focuses on what strategies were used and what challenges were faced. Just within this journal there are papers that review risk-based decision support tools in fire management (Miller and Ager 2013; Hyde et al. 2013), and papers that use expert surveys and interviews to identify barriers and facilitators in science implementation (Hunter 2016; Glenn et al. 2022; McFayden et al. 2022; Rapp et al. 2020; Varzeshi et al. 2026).

External to what has been done within the world of wildland fire, there is a huge amount of work in the broader field of science implementation and knowledge exchange. Research on dedicated, often interdisciplinary, knowledge exchange and translational science strategies can be applied in the fire risk science context. The same goes for work done in other fields such as medical or environmental science. Successful efforts to integrate science and society have shown us the benefits of co-production of tools and research, how crucial it is to have people functioning as knowledge brokers, the importance of boundary organizsations, trust as a systemic necessity in the collaborative process, and mutual learning within and between groups of players.

One thing to keep in mind is that individuals do not have to undertake all of these efforts simultaneously. Small steps toward better implementation of fire risk science absolutely counts. Creating long-term formalized knowledge exchange programs, building collaborative networks, and implementing large projects with continuous stakeholder engagement takes a whole lot of time and effort. All well-worth the effort, but easy wins might include using knowledge translation tools such as targeted evidence briefs of recent research, or even making connections with others interested in fire risk and having a casual conversation about the work.

Conclusion

The International Journal of Wildland Fire aims to publish impactful science that leads to benefit in the world of wildland fire. In support of that goal, I encourage the research community to clearly lay out potential benefits and meaningfully discuss the practical applications of a research project when writing papers.

That said, the impact of fire research can be dramatically bolstered through broader and more diverse forms of science communication and through knowledge exchange activities. Implementing research findings should be prioritized just as much as making the findings in the first place. Ultimately if the research isn’t fed into—and fed by—operations, planning needs, traditional knowledge and values, or local priorities, its potential impact remains limited. As researchers and practitioners reading this journal, there is a need to carefully consider how the science can lead to societal benefit. Particularly for topics related to fire risk, there is a certain moral duty associated with the application of science and its role in society. Thoughtfully applying the available abundance of new knowledge, tools, or approaches by distilling practical benefit from research papers has significant potential for reducing wildland fire risk.

Closing the gap between fire risk science and implementation should be prioritized and even incentivized. With the rapid rate of science being produced, the gap will widen unless there is conscious effort. Greater emphasis is needed on ensuring that published work not only advances knowledge, but also clearly supports its application in practice.

Risky Science – why connecting research to application matters

Wildfire risk rating now available for 145 million properties in the United States

National Wildfire Probability.
National Wildfire Probability. First Street Foundation. 2022.

An organization has developed a system for calculating the wildfire risk of 145 million properties this year and 30 years from now.

The First Street Foundation’s Risk Factor is a free source of probabilistic wildfire risk information where anyone can enter a street address and within seconds see the risk for both wildfires and floods at that location.

We tested the system by entering property addresses for two locations that were severely impacted by recent wildfires.

  • The Marshall Fire near Boulder, Colorado last year destroyed 1,091 homes and damaged 179. We looked up the Risk Factor for three properties in a community that had total destruction. The result was that they all had a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor”, and individually a 1.84, 2.0, 1.84 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years.
  • The Coastal Fire (see photo below) destroyed 20 homes last week in Laguna Niguel, California and damaged 11. The two we looked at in the zone with severe destruction received a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor” with a 0.93 and 1.54 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years. The homes were at the top of a steep brush-covered slope.

Coastal Fire, Orange County, CA
Coastal Fire, Orange County, CA, May 11, 2022. ABC7.

The text below is how the First Street Foundation describes their rating system for wildfire risk:


There has long been an urgent need for accurate, property-level, publicly available environmental risk information in the United States based on open source, peer reviewed science. In a mission to fill that need, First Street Foundation has built a team of leading modelers, researchers, and data scientists to develop the first comprehensive, publicly available risk models in the United States. Beginning with flood and now wildfire, First Street works to correct the asymmetry of information in the market, empowering Americans to protect their most valuable asset–their home while working with industry and government entities to inform them of their risk.

METHODOLOGICAL OVERVIEW
The First Street Foundation Wildfire Model integrates information on fuels, wildfire weather, and ignition into a Fire Behavior Model. The wildfire model requires data on the combustible fuels which may contribute to wildfire across the United States. The 2016 update, Version 2.0.0, of the canonical U.S. Forest Service (USFS) LANDFIRE (LANDFIRE, 2021) fuels dataset at the 30 meter resolution serves as a baseline of this fuels estimate, and that dataset is updated by including additional information of all known “disturbances” between 2016 and 2020 which could modify or change the fuels in a way not captured in the original dataset. These “disturbances” include activities such as recent wildfires, prescribed burns, harvests, and other forest management practices.

Another important and novel update included in the First Street Foundation Wildfire model is the reclassification of homes and other buildings from a “nonburnable” fuel type to a “burnable” fuel type. Typically, homes and other buildings are classified as nonburnable fuel types within LANDFIRE v2.0.0. In order to allow the wildfire behavior model to more accurately estimate how wildfire moves through the Wildland-Urban-Interface (WUI), properties within the WUI must be replaced by a burnable fuel type so as to not block the modeled wildfire spread.

To represent a wide range of possible weather-driven wildfire conditions across the landscape within the simulations employed here, the model utilizes a decade of NOAA weather data, the 2011-2020 Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) dataset (NOAA/NCEP, 2022) augmented by data from Oregon State’s PRISM dataset (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model; PRISM, 2021).

These weather data include hourly surface wind, air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation information at the 2.5 km horizontal resolution. This weather data supports a wide range of possible weather conditions, not to recreate any particular wildfire events, but to drive the wildfire behavior model millions of times in a Monte Carlo simulation scheme to derive 2022 wildfire hazard estimates.

Similarly, for 2052 the same weather time series was used to drive the simulations, but the air temperature, humidity, and precipitation were bias-adjusted to 2052 conditions following the CMIP5 RCP4.5 ensemble results. Rather than applying a bias-adjustment to the wind time series for the future climate, the same winds from the 2011-2020 time series were used to drive the 2052 simulations to reduce sensitivity of the model to highly uncertain future predictions of winds.

One of the primary indicators of where future wildfires will occur is informed through data on historical wildfire occurrences. These historical wildfires help to inform where wildfires may occur vis-à-vis the Fire Occurrence Database (FOD) developed by the USDA Forest Service (Short, 2014; Short, 2021).  An open source wildfire behavior model was used, ELMFIRE (Eulerian Level Set Model of Fire Spread). This work does not develop new techniques for wildfire modeling, but rather implements computationally efficient and scalable modeling techniques at a high resolution based on existing science, wildfire probability, and hazard modeling paradigms. These scalable techniques make it practical to more easily conduct wildfire simulations at the 30 meter resolution across the entire country, enabling property and building specific assessments of wildfire risk.

For each 30 meter pixel across the country, information is recorded on the distribution and occurrence of burn incidence, flame lengths experienced, and the relative amount of embers which land in the pixel. These provide estimates of:

Burn probability: the estimated likelihood of the area burning during any single year.
–Fire intensity: estimated flame lengths, including maximum, average, and sum of all flame lengths experienced.
–Ember exposure: the relative amount of embers which land in an area due to nearby simulated wildfires.