A destructive cycle is worsening throughout the world’s arctic regions.
Numerous areas throughout Earth have “permafrost,” or layers of soil and sediment beneath the surface that remain frozen no matter the season. Humans, in their hubris, believed the frost to be “permanent,” but human-driven climate change, through the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, is shaking that stability.
Wildfires have recently burned more and more acres throughout the world’s arctic regions, causing unprecedented permafrost thawing and soil drying, according to a recent study published in Nature Communications. The abrupt drying is causing a subsequent abrupt increase in wildfires, continuing the vicious cycle.
“The abrupt soil drying and intensified atmospheric aridity can facilitate an abrupt increase in fires, related to biomass and peat burning over the permafrost regions,” the researchers said. “The abrupt increase in sensible heat fluxes can intensify the warming of near-surface air temperature and enhance atmospheric aridity, further promoting wildfire intensity.”
Fire in Yukon Charley Rivers National Preserve, Alaska. NPS photo.
Researchers estimate burned acreage throughout arctic areas will more than double after permafrost thaw, while historically fire-prone areas do not see changes. Additionally, once soil moisture is lost, it isn’t regained until after a long recovery period which researchers estimate to be over two years, further prolonging wildfire activity.
The researchers said their hypothesis was confirmed in the study: Soil moisture loss triggers a cascading effect in arctic areas, leading to rapid biomass burning, atmospheric drying, and an abrupt increase in wildfires and emissions.
“The abrupt increase in wildfires over the historical permafrost regions can contribute to changes in net terrestrial carbon uptake,” the researchers said. “Furthermore, the contribution of carbon release from wildfires to the net terrestrial carbon balance in these regions accelerates after the mid-21st century.”
It’s not the first study to link permafrost burning to increased emissions. A NASA study last year looked specifically at how wildfires throughout Alaska’s largest river delta were affecting that area’s permafrost and found clusters of methane “hot spots” where wildfires burned into tundra.
“We find that [methane] hotspots are roughly 29 percent more likely on average in tundra that burned within the last 50 years compared with unburned areas, and that this effect is nearly tripled along burn scar perimeters that are delineated by surface water features,” the researchers said. “Our results indicate that the changes following tundra fire favor the complex environmental conditions needed to generate emission hotspots.”
For over half a century, the first line of wildfire defense consisted of humans perched on towers hundreds of feet in the air.
Fire lookout towers played an essential role in detecting wildfires since even before the USFS was founded in 1905. The Great Fire of 1910, also known as the Big Blowup, enshrined the towers as cornerstones of the country’s new, now discredited, full fire suppression regime. The lookouts were largely decommissioned between the 1960s and the 1990s after technological advancements in radio communication, aircraft, and even satellites gained favor over the human eye.
The tech advancements, however, lacked two things fire lookouts excelled at: spotting fires early and when they’re small. Even the most advanced modern satellites can detect wildfires only after they burn around three acres. Acreage burned is also updated only a few times daily with low-resolution images.
“Google Research has been developing FireSat, a purpose-built satellite constellation to provide highly detailed insights, data for ecological intervention, and novel ground truth for the scientists and machine learning experts studying fire propagation and risk,” the company said.
The program, called “FireSat,” is a collaboration between Google, the Earth Fire Alliance, and Muon Space. The program is slated to launch around 52 satellites, starting in early 2025 and continuing through 2026, with the goal of providing global high-resolution images updated every 20 minutes to enable early detection of wildfires roughly the size of a classroom.
The satellites reportedly have an expected lifespan of five to seven years, so researchers predict they’ll have to launch 10 satellites annually to keep the program going once it’s up and running.
“Using AI, FireSat will rapidly compare any 5×5 meter spot on earth with previous imagery, while also combining factors like nearby infrastructure and local weather, to determine if there’s a fire,” Google said. “In addition to supporting emergency response efforts, FireSat’s data will be used to create a global historical record of fire spread, helping Google and scientists to better model and understand wildfire behavior and spread.”
Researchers also committed to offer the data as open source and for free to fire agencies and climate researchers around the world.
Researchers, however, affirmed the healthy aspects fire has on some landscapes. They also stressed this new technology wasn’t made with full suppression in mind, but rather as a means to give fire crews and managers the most up-to-date data in order to make the best decisions for managing fire.
“We really want to focus on reducing the size, frequency, and damage of hot and fast fires, and encouraging, as much as we can, slow and cool fires because we need a lot of slow, cool fire in order for ecosystems to improve,” said former Cal State Fire Marshal and Moore Foundation Senior Advisor Kate Dargan. “FireSat, because it will tell us not just where fires are, but also how hot they’re burning…we can develop new strategies for fire management that isn’t just ‘put it out’.”
Credit: Google Research
It will take multiple years for all the program’s satellites to launch, but it will take longer for the system to be fully operational. The first phase of FireSat will strictly be gathering data and sifting through it so fire managers can actually use it without worrying about false positives.
“In the satellite image of the Earth a lot of things can be mistaken for a fire,” said Earth Fire Alliance Chairman and Google Research Climate & Energy Lead Researcher Chris Van Arsdale. “A glint, a hot roof, smoke from another fire covering something that’s warm in the background. There are a lot more of these than real fires, and so detecting fires becomes a game of looking for needles in a world of haystacks.”
Once the false-positive problem is solved, fire managers and scientists will be able to use the data as a visual history of all fires globally. Wildfires will reportedly be tracked step-by-step from when they start to when they are extinguished, which will help researchers better understand fire behavior on the global scale.
Many departments, counties, states and even international countries, especially in the Global South, often face hurdles to this kind of technology due to financial constraints or lack of technological infrastructure. Google researchers said they’re working with partners throughout the globe to identify which aspects of the data they most need and how to best get it to them.
“For example, in Brazil and Indonesia, those are largely regional partnerships where either a government organization or a conservation organization serves our distributor to make sure the data is actually hitting the ground and being used by the agencies themselves,” Earth Fire Alliance Executive Director Brian Collins said.
Agencies interested in joining the program’s Early Adopter Program can reach out to Earth Fire Alliance Community Organizer Ann Kapusta at ann@earthfirealliance.org or get updates by signing up at the Earth Fire Alliance website.
Wildfires present an increasing challenge to humans and to the ecosystems and atmosphere we depend on. Our response to larger and more destructive wildfires and ability to prepare for a changing climate is increasingly challenged. Understanding fire behavior and human response is ever more important.
The 7th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference offers a forum at which fire management experience and lessons are documented, current work showcased, and emerging research is shared.
This conference on three continents showcases new fire management policies and frameworks to address fire risks and build resilience. The conference will unite policy makers, scientists, fire managers, and Indigenous land stewards for a shared purpose and a better future living with fire.
Held concurrently in Tralee, Ireland and Canberra, Australia and Boise, Idaho.
BOISE HIGHLIGHTS:
Monday: Workshops, Field Tours, Keynote Session by Dr. Lori Moore-Merrell, Opening reception with sponsors and exhibitors.
Tuesday: Sessions, exhibitors, and Poster session/reception.
Wildfires have become an increasing challenge to humanity, the ecosystem, and the atmosphere we depend on. Responding to larger and more destructive wildfires and protecting against their climate impacts is challenging; understanding fire behavior and our responses is critical.
The 7th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference is a forum in which fire management experience is documented, current work is showcased, and emerging research is shared as we together develop solutions to these challenges.
This conference on three continents brings together countries in three areas of the world to develop fire policies at national, regional– to learn from others how they address fire risks and build resilience. The conference unites policymakers, scientists, managers, and indigenous land stewards for a shared purpose in living with fire.
The 7th International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference hosts events on three continents, highlighting a range of experience from different countries to develop fire management policies in facing risk and building resilience.
The conference will bring together policymakers, scientists, fire managers, and Indigenous land stewards, and more for a shared purpose of creating a future where we can live with fire. Join us for an authentic conversation on managing fires and creating a sustainable future.
Presenters and speakers this year include Dr. Lori Moore-Merrell, Dr. Dean Yibarbuk, Dr. Lachlan McCaw, Prof. Nerilie Abram, Prof. Sarah Legge, Dr. Dan Pronk, Katie Lighthall, Dr. Mark Finney, Dr. Mark Parrington, Dr. Joseph Wilkins, Edward Alexander,and Dr. Conceicao Colaco. All conference registrants at any of the three locations will receive access to recordings of each presentation.
Workshops: Our interactive workshops are educational and feature a range of topics to choose from. You can learn new skills and connect with experts in their fields.
Field Tours: Each location has scheduled a collection of field trip opportunities. Field tours provide hands-on learning options from exploring nature to sharing history and culture. Select your trip when you register.
Exhibitors: Our exhibition hosts a range of displays and demos. You will learn more about the latest products and services in fire science and management. We look forward to seeing you there!
The International Association of Wildland Fire (IAWF) is a non-profit, 501(c)(3) professional association committed to a non-partisan approach for uniting the global wildland fire community. We were formed in 1990 as a global professional membership association. For 30 years IAWF has grown from a fledgling organization to a global member-focused association spanning 26+ countries. The IAWF was formed to promote a better understanding of wildland fire and built on the belief that an understanding of this dynamic natural force is vital for natural resource management, protecting the health, safety, and welfare of people including firefighters and the public, and for harmonious interactions between people and their environment. IAWF is dedicated to communicating with the entire wildland fire community and providing a global linkage for people with shared interest in wildland fire and all of the associated topics of this multifaceted community. To accomplish these goals, we convene and create networks across sectors, fields, and disciplines to connect the wildfire community through multiple platforms, through which we communicate — including conferences, our website, the premier academic journal in our field (International Journal of Wildland Fire), a popular-oriented magazine (Wildfire) and via social media outlets.
Scientists have introduced a new theory for the cause of the Maui fires in August, and the theory casts doubt on previous assumptions that linked the wildfires to nearby Hurricane Dora. Weather models show the fires were actually blown by the same meteorological phenomenon that’s often behind California’s worst wildfires — a downslope windstorm (see Rattlesnake).
Nearly four months after the Lahaina Fire that devastated Maui — leaving 100 people dead and 6,000 still homeless — scientists have clarified a new theory; according to a report by the Daily Mail, video footage documenting the fire revealed a wind-driven firestorm, but the power outages during the firestorm left scientists uncertain about which factors had caused the fire behavior.
Atmospheric researchers have now simulated the weather and fire trends in western Maui. In Lahaina, the main cause of the fires was a strong high-pressure system north of Hawai’i that intensified the easterly tradewinds, and when those winds ran up against the slopes in West Maui, the speed increased as the winds blew downhill. When they hit Lahaina they’d reached hurricane strength.
Simulations by the University of Nevada-Reno and the State University of New York at Buffalo showed that sustained winds in Lahaina on August 8 were nearly 80 mph with gusts exceeding 90 mph. Studies by the University of Hawaii and the University of Washington simulated similar wind speeds.
Cliff Mass, an atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington who simulated the Maui windstorm, said the combination of fuels, strong winds, and ignition sources is a common set-up for destructive wildfires.
“There’s a real story for Californians here because what happened in Maui, what happened in the Marshall Fire, what happened at Paradise … they’re all the same thing,” Mass told the San Francisco Chronicle.
The Chronicle reported that videos from Lahaina showed a wind-driven fire, but that because weather stations in the area had lost power during the fire, researchers could not be certain about exactly which factors had combined to create the firestorm. Many had initially attributed the disaster to Hurricane Dora near the island.
Below is a forecast vertical cross-section of the situation on the island at about 11 a.m. Hawaii time. Cliff Mass explains that winds are shown by the color shading and arrows. “The solid lines are potential temperature. An extraordinarily high amplitude wave had formed, with air descending the western side of the Maui Mountains, accelerating as it plummeted toward Lahaina. At low elevations, the flow abruptly ascended, in a feature often termed a hydraulic jump.”
Cliff Mass illustration — Maui Mountains
He said the Lahaina situation involved a wet winter, followed by a dry summer, causing grasses to grow exceptionally in the spring to create a dense fuel load, ready to burn.
A video that claimed to show a rarely-seen wildfire phenomenon went viral in August. Now, researchers have confirmed its legitimacy.
An “extensive investigation” led by researchers at Western University’s Northern Tornadoes Project in Ontario started after the video of a vortex above British Columbia’s Gun Lake was shared by numerous news outlets after it was recorded on August 18.
“The Northern Tornadoes Project has been investigating this event since that time — very carefully, given this was potentially the first fire-generated tornado that we have recorded,” researchers said.
Researchers first confirmed the location and date of the video, then had to determine whether the vortex shown in the video met the definition of a tornado. The project was able to determine the tornado’s validity through multiple visual indications from the recording, including the presence of a spray vortex at the base of the tornado, how the vortex formed and the position of the vortex over the fire, all of which matched the scientific research related to fire-generated tornadoes.
“Though the terminology in this area of science is still developing, it should be pointed out that this intense vortex was not a brief, fire-filled ‘fire whirl‘ but an actual tornado that is sometimes referred to as a pyrotornado,” the researchers said. “This is the first such fire-generated tornado recorded by [the Northern Tornadoes Project], and appears to be the most thoroughly documented fire-generated tornado so far in Canada.”
The researchers confirmed that, yes, the event is classified as a tornado. The full extent of the damage from the tornado isn’t yet known, but the project says evidence is trickling in slowly.
The pyrotornado isn’t the only one that’s been thoroughly studied. The “world’s first wildfire tornado” was captured on video in 2003 during a wildfire outside of Canberra, Australia. The fire destroyed 500 homes and killed four people. The damage was worsened when the pyrotornado emerged.
“The Canberra fire tornado of 2003 was rated an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with horizontal winds of 160 miles per hour, roughly equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane,” an article from Smithsonian Magazine reads. “As the first documented example of its kind, it was a milestone — another harbinger of 21st-century fire.”
A similar event was recorded during the 2018 Carr Fire in Redding, California, dubbed “the most destructive fire in National Park System history.” The fire destroyed 1,614 structures, killed seven people, and burned 229,651 acres. The fire also has a place in history for the pyrotornado it generated, which has since helped forecasters’ and scientists’ ability to identify future fire-generated tornadoes. NOAA researchers studied the pyrotornado, which had many similarities to the Gun Lake tornado.
“A key factor in the vortex formation was the development of a fire-generated ice-topped cloud (i.e., a pyrocumulonimbus), which reached as high as 12 km aloft,” NOAA said. “These observations will help forecasters and scientists identify, and potentially warn for, future destructive fire-generated vortices.”
A video that claimed to show a rarely-seen wildfire phenomenon went viral in August. Now, researchers have confirmed its legitimacy.
An “extensive investigation” led by researchers at Western University’s Northern Tornadoes Project in Ontario started after the video of a vortex above British Columbia’s Gun Lake was shared by numerous news outlets after it was recorded on August 18.
