(Originally published at 1:20 p.m. MDT August 1, 2018)
On August 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for August through November. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their analysis is correct, in August and September firefighters will be busy in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, and northern Nevada.
Below are:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and,
Drought Monitor.
“August is the peak month for fire activity across the West. Given the amount of lightning received along with preexisting heavy fuel loading and dryness, a very active month is expected with Above Normal significant wildland fire potential likely across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, northern Great Basin, and California. Typically, a weather event occurs by mid-September that brings moisture to regions experiencing significant fire activity which allows for the western fire season to begin to decrease in activity. Given ongoing trends that support a normal seasonal progression and given a transition from ENSO Neutral conditions to El Niño, such an event is expected. Most regions will exit the fire season at this point, but only a brief lull is expected across California before it enters its fall fire season by October and November. Given ongoing dryness in the fuels, the fall season may very well be robust across portions of the state.”
There are media reports that homes were destroyed Tuesday afternoon northwest of Lakeport
ABOVE: Map showing the perimeter, in red, of the east side of the River Fire (part of the Mendocino Complex of Fires) at 11:46 p.m. PDT July 31, 2018. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
(Originally published at 10 a.m. PDT August 1, 2018)
Tuesday afternoon winds pushed the two blazes that comprise the Mendocino Complex of Fires farther east, both spreading for at least a mile. The Ranch Fire moved into sparsely populated areas, but the River Fire ran through an area with scattered ranches northwest of Lakeport, California. Media personnel on scene said the fire was especially intense near Dessie Drive and Hendricks Road. CAL FIRE said Wednesday morning that a total of 10 residences have been destroyed in the two fires, but it is not clear if that number includes what could be additional losses late in the day on Tuesday.
To see all of the articles on Wildfire Today about the Mendocino Complex of Fires, including the most recent, click HERE.
Firefighters were extremely busy Tuesday in that wildland-urban interface as the fire raced through the populated areas. They were protecting structures, then getting chased out by flames, and reestablishing a defense at another structure.
Map showing the perimeter, in red, of the Mendocino Complex of Fires at 11:46 p.m. PDT July 31, 2018. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours before.
Both fires started in Mendocino County but burned into Lake County. The Ranch Fire is now also well established in the Mendocino National Forest.
According to the numbers CAL FIRE released Wednesday morning, the two fires have burned 90,912 acres; 59,019 on the Ranch Fire, and 31,898 on the River Fire.
As usual, Kent Porter got some fabulous shots of the River Fire Tuesday:
The #Riverfire blew in to Scotts Valley Tuesday off of Cow Mountain devouring structures on its way. A Pyrocumulus cloud also developed from the #Ranchfire as helicopters were used in the fight on the River. @NorthBayNews pic.twitter.com/zrr5x5I8k2
Just disengaged from the #mendocinocomplex to take a breather in deserted Lakeport. Some of the most intense wildland urban interface firefighting I’ve seen in 100 fires. Fire behavior I saw today is terrifying, there is little to stop it other than fire front following.
Below, a CAL FIRE Battalion Chief explains how they fight fires when you don’t have enough resources. Basically, you protect lives and private property first, then as time and resources permit, deal with the part of the fire that is burning in remote areas.
Limited Resources, Unlimited Fire. CAL FIRE Makes Compromises. #MendocinoComplex https://t.co/IeMXmr9lAz
After having received some monsoonal moisture, Western Colorado apparently is drying a bit, and has quite a few active fires.
Below is information provided by the Rocky Mountain Coordination Center July 31, 2018. Some of the larger ones that are active are listed below, north to south.
Cabin Lake: 350 acres, 103 personnel. White River N.F. ICT3 (Thompson) 16 miles SE of Meeker, CO. Fuel model 4 and 10. Extreme fire behavior with crowning, wind-driven runs and spotting. Residential structures and powerlines threatened. Road, trail and area closures in effect.
Red Canyon: 1,500 acres; 136 personnel. White River BLM. ICT4 (Jacob) 45 miles SW of Meeker, CO. Fuel model 5 and 2. Moderate fire behavior with running, uphill runs and spotting. Residential structures, oil and gas infrastructure and FAA Tower threatened. SWA IMT (Andrews) transition of command anticipated 2400 7/30.
Cache Creek: 325 acres; 50 personnel. White River N.F. ICT3 (Spetter/Ottoson(T)) 8 miles SW of Rifle, CO. Fuel model 10. Moderate fire behavior with single tree torching, group torching and long-range spotting. Oil and gas infrastructure, watershed and private timber interests threatened. RMA IMT2 (Esperance) in-brief 2000 7/30.
Lake Christine: has been burning since July 3, 2018. 12,588 acres, 313 personnel. Eagle County. RMA IMT2 (Greer). One mile NW of Basalt, CO. Fuel model 8 and 2. Minimal fire behavior with smoldering and creeping. Threat to residential structures, private inholdings and high voltage transmission lines, communications infrastructure, water supply infrastructure, commercial airline corridor. Road, area and trail closures in effect. Transfer of command to local IMT3 (Anderson) planned for 7/31. Expected containment 8/2.
Buttermilk: 671 acres, (no more information)
Plateau: 1,200 acres, 87 personnel. San Juan N.F. ICT3 (Seekins/Stark (T)). 13 miles N of Dolores, CO. Fuel model 10 and 2. Moderate fire behavior with short range spotting, isolated torching, group torching and wind driven runs. Road and area closures in effect.
Above: A Los Angeles County Fire Department Captain collects hose so that he can move it further up the hill.
Fire photographer Jeff Zimmerman shot these photos July 30 at a vegetation fire in Newhall, California. Here is what he wrote in an email:
A 10-acre brush fire damaged two apartment buildings yesterday in Newhall along Valle Del Oro and Alder that were above a steep canyon. In sweltering heat firefighters knocked down the blaze in just over an hour. Trying to battle traffic in 100-degree heat, the fire was contained on my arrival so I decided to take to the burnt hillside and grab some portraits of people at the fire. My favorite is a young girl trying to stay cool near the fire hydrant along Valle Del Oro.
Jeff Rankin Superintendent of fire camp 11 takes a knee for a quick break while watching his crew put in fire line.
The Australian ABC News Service reports the US is asking for 188 specialist firefighters
(UPDATED at 12:36 p.m. MDT August 1, 2018)
On Wednesday, August 1 the National Interagency Fire Center issued a press released about the United States requesting firefighters from Australia and New Zealand to assist with suppressing wildfires in the Western United States. In addition to our report on July 31 (below) the NIFC release had this additional information:
The request is for fire personnel from both Australia and New Zealand.
The request is for Division Supervisors, Safety Officers, Task Force Leaders, Strike Team Leaders, Heavy Equipment Bosses, Helicopter Managers, Helicopter Crew Members, Structure Protection Specialists and Liaison Officers. These wildland fire management positions have been identified as “unable to fill” through the U.S. dispatch/coordination system on a daily basis in recent weeks.
In addition to the firefighters sent from “down under” in 2008 and 2015, they also assisted during the 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2006 fire seasons. U.S. firefighters traveled to Australia to assist with their fire seasons in 2010, 2009, 2007 and in 2003.
(End of update)
(Originally published at 2:41 p.m. MDT July 31, 2018)
The United States is seeking help from the other side of the world to help suppress some of the 140 large active wildfires that have burned a cumulative 1.2 million acres. We confirmed with Randy Eardley, a spokesperson for the Bureau of Land Management, that the process of requesting help from Australia is underway but all of the details have not yet been worked out.
Much more information about the effort was published by the Australian ABC News Service which had an article about the request on Monday (US time). Here is an excerpt:
The National Multi-Agency Coordination Group (MAC) in the US formally requested assistance over the weekend, seeking 188 specialist firefighters from Australia and New Zealand.The firefighters would be deployed for up to 42 days in the California area.
Candidates from each Australian state will be placed in a national pool, with the most suitable candidates chosen this afternoon ahead of their deployment to the US on Friday.
South Australian Country Fire Service spokesman Brett Williamson said the most suitable firefighters to come forward in South Australia so far had experience fighting fires in areas with rough terrain and forests.
“We are finding it is more the state-based ones — in particular [those from] the South East and the Port Lincoln area … that are the ones who will probably have the beneficial skills that the United States [is] searching for,” Mr Williamson said.
The US has asked for paid staff rather than volunteers.
“At this stage, we are still calculating the numbers of who is available, who will be available from their employers to be released and then they will go into a national pool and that national pool will then basically be cherry-picked for the best people that are suitable for the job,” Mr Williamson said.
Australia also sent help in 2008 and 2015. The 2015 request was for 71 fire managers and specialists who came from Australia and New Zealand. They arrived in Boise August 23 for a one-day induction to learn about current fire behavior, fuels, and weather conditions. After the orientation, they were assigned to large fires. The 2015 contingent included 15 Division Supervisors; 15 Task Force/Strike Team Leaders; 15 Helicopter Managers; 10 Heavy Equipment Bosses; 10 Safety Officers; 4 Regional Liaison Officers; and two National Liaison Officers. Fifteen of the total were from New Zealand.
Assistance from Australia and New Zealand is a good fit primarily because their fire organizations are very similar to the United States national fire organization in training requirements and structure.
In 2010 the United States and Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen emergency management cooperation between the two countries. One of the objectives was to streamline processes for emergency management authorities in both countries to facilitate the exchange of personnel in response to emergencies.
