The predicted weather will slow the spread of the fire the rest of this week
8:45 a.m. PDT Sept. 13, 2022
Bolt Creek Fire Sept. 10, 2022. Image from Path Least Taken video
The two hikers who found themselves nearly entrapped by the rapidly spreading Bolt Creek Fire in northwest Washington near Skykomish have posted a video describing how they escaped.
After nearly reaching their goal of the top of Baring Mountain on Saturday September 10, they realized the smoke noticed earlier was from a fire that started that morning and had become a threat to their lives. The two of them shot video off and on during the entire hike, and on Sunday “Path Least Taken” posted an expertly-edited version on YouTube. He explained that he debated about publishing it, but did so “as an educational tool to point out all of the mistakes we made that ended up putting our lives in danger.”
During the escape they used wayfaring skills and technology tools to figure out how to descend the very steep slopes while avoiding the fire, which was at times exhibiting extreme flame lengths many times the heights of the trees, as you can see in the above image from their video.
When the Bolt Creek Fire was mapped Monday evening it had burned about 9,400 acres. In several places it has spread downhill nearly to US Highway 2. The fire activity was very much diminished Monday by much higher relative humidity. A weather station at Index northwest of the fire recorded very light winds Monday with the RH ranging from 57 to 92 percent, conditions not conducive to rapid fire spread.
Bolt Creek Fire 3-D map, looking NNW at 7:41 p.m. Sept. 12, 2022.
“It’s been a good day today for firefighters,” said Jim Cahill, a Washington State Department of Natural Resources spokesperson Monday evening.
As of Monday night US Highway 2 was closed from Milepost 32 to Milepost 50 and the community of Index was under a “Go Now” evacuation order.
The spot weather forecast for Tuesday predicts temperatures around 60 degrees, minimum RH of 87 percent, and light winds becoming 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon out of the northwest. Tuesday night the RH will rise to 100 percent and drop to only 86 percent on Wednesday. On Monday and Tuesday there is a 13 to 16 percent chance of very light rain, about 0.03″. The humidity is expected to remain mostly in the 80s and 90s through Sunday. The fire will not spread rapidly under these predicted conditions.
Bolt Creek Fire map. The red line was the perimeter at 7:41 p.m. Sept. 12, 2022. The white line was the perimeter about 48 hours previously.
The fire 35 miles northeast of Sacramento was very active Sunday, spreading east up to a mile
3 p.m. September 12, 2022
Mosquito Fire map. The red line was the perimeter at 1:19 p.m. PDT Sept. 12, 2022. The white line was the perimeter on the morning of September 11, 2022. Three previous fire footprints are also shown.
On Sunday the east side of the Mosquito Fire spread as much as a mile to the east. Having already burned through most of the footprint from the 2007 Ralston Fire, for the first time it moved into the 2013 American Fire and the 2014 King Fire. It did not burn enough of those two more recent fires to get a good picture of how likely it is to spread completely through those eight and nine year old footprints.
At 1:19 p.m. Monday it was mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at about 48,500 acres. The blaze is 35 miles northeast of Sacramento.
Monday afternoon satellite and ground based cameras showed clouds, haze or smoke, and scattered thunderstorms in the general area of the fire. Light showers were reported in some areas. If strong outflow winds from passing thunderstorms hit the fire area without any rain it could increase the rate of spread significantly, sometimes in unexpected directions.
Crews working Sunday night on the southwest side between Foresthill and Volcanoville had to stop a strategic firing operation due to a small amount of rain. If conditions permit they hope to continue the operation today.
The weather forecast for Monday through Wednesday is for light to moderate winds of 2 to 9 mph generally from the southwest during the day with minimum humidities in the 30s and 40s. Thursday through Saturday the winds will be very light while the humidity will be in the 40s.
In the video below watch how smoke from the Mosquito Fire overtakes Reno, Nevada.
Watch until the end! Smoke from the #MosquitoFire came racing into Reno/Sparks this afternoon. Smoke is expected to linger in the Tahoe Basin and Greater Reno/Sparks/Carson City/Minden areas through tomorrow. For more information: https://t.co/HbSuxy5V5ppic.twitter.com/udHzLFYBYY
Cedar Creek Fire 3-D map looking east at 10:45 p.m. Sept 10, 2022.
The Cedar Creek Fire that started August 1 in west-central Oregon was already very large at 27,512 acres on the morning of Thursday September 8. But as a result of dry, windy weather on the following two days when a mapping aircraft was over the fire at 10 p.m. Saturday it had more than tripled in size to 85,900 acres. That night the blaze was about 5 miles northeast of Oakridge.
Most of the growth was to the west, driven by strong easterly winds and dry fuels. Saturday evening while winds were from the west, firefighters on the western flank completed strategic burning operations near Eagle Butte, 5 miles northeast of Oakridge. The fire remained north of Highway 58, south of Forest Road 19, and east of Eagle Butte.
Cedar Creek Fire map, 10:45 p.m. Sept 10, 2022.
The incident management team says 2,230 homes and 443 commercial structures remain threatened, but none have been reported as destroyed. The Office of the Oregon State Fire Marshal has committed seven task forces and an incident management team to the incident.
Saturday evening resources committed to the fire included 17 hand crews, 53 engines, and 8 helicopters for a total of 994 personnel. The estimated suppression costs so far are $47 million.
In the satellite photo below the Cedar Fire is producing the smoke seen in the lower portion of the image.
Satellite photo, Bolt Creek and Cedar Creek fires Sept. 10, 2022. Processed by Pierre Markuse.
The Bolt Creek Fire near Skykomish is growing rapidly
Updated 8:50 a.m. PDT Sept. 11, 2022
Bolt Creek Fire, mapped by a fixed wing aircraft at 8:21 pm Sept. 10, 2022
The Bolt Creek Fire 42 miles north-northeast of Seattle is producing smoke that is moving into Everett and Bellingham. The fire spread eight miles to the northwest after it started Saturday near Skykomish off US Highway 2. So far it has remained north of the highway as it burned past Grotto and Baring. A US Forest Service mapping flight Saturday night determined it had blackened about 7,660 acres and was 3 miles southeast of Index. This data from a fixed wing aircraft is much more accurate than some of the maps being posted on social media.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Bolt Creek Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
An 18-mile corridor of Highway 2 remains closed and evacuations are in effect. Snohomish County has the details.
This kind of wildfire activity is exceptionally rare for the western slopes of the central Cascades in Washington.
Satellite photo, Bolt Creek (on the north) and Cedar Creek fires Sept. 10, 2022. Processed by Pierre Markuse.
Two hikers that were on the mountain had a harrowing escape from the fire. They called 911 and were told it was too dangerous to rescue them by helicopter, but eventually after scrambling down steep terrain they made it out of danger. (Update, Sept. 13, 2022: the hikers documented their escape from the fire.)
3:47 p.m. PDT Sept. 10, 2022
The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite on the Bolt Creek Fire near Skykomish, Washington at 1:54 p.m. PDT September 10, 2022. The extent of heat displayed may be exaggerated. The fire, at that time, may not have been as large as depicted here.
Several wildfires are pushing smoke into western Oregon and Washington. The Bolt Creek Fire, which started Saturday in northwest Washington near Skykomish off US Highway 2 is growing very quickly. It is producing a great deal of smoke blowing to the northwest toward Everett and Bellingham.
Bolt Creek Fire, September 10, 2022. Washington State DNR.
Our very, very rough estimate of the size, based on the imprecise satellite heat data, is that the Bolt Creek Fire had burned more than 2,500 acres by 1:54 p.m. PDT Saturday.
Satellite photo showing smoke from fires in Washington and Oregon, 2:21 PDT Sept. 10, 2022.
A section of Highway 2 is closed.
The US 2 closure now extends from milepost 31.7 (east of Zeke’s Drive In and Gold Bar) to milepost 49 (east end of Skykomish). The road is only open to people evacuating. Please continue to monitor @wspd7pio, @kingcosoPIO and @waDNR_fire for evacuation/fire info. #BoltCreekFire
Snohomish County has evacuation information about the Bolt Creek Fire.
A fire south of Mount Rainier National Park, the Goat Rocks Fire, is also producing smoke, but it is heading generally west to the Centralia area. As of Friday it had burned about 1,500 acres.
The smoke from a very large fire that has been burning since August 1 in west-central Oregon, the Cedar Creek Fire, is sending smoke into Washington. The Washington State DNR said today that smoke from that 35,000-acre fire is being lofted to higher altitudes and is not expected to contribute significantly to further reductions in air quality at ground level. It will actually help keep temperatures down a few degrees Saturday afternoon, they said, and limit the minimum relative humidity values experienced in the Puget Lowlands.
Bolt Creek Fire, September 10, 2022. Washington State DNR.
Rain that began falling at about 1 p.m. Friday slowed the spread of the Fairview and Radford Fires in Southern California. By 5 a.m. Saturday weather stations near the fires had recorded amounts ranging from 0.05″ to 0.28″. Much higher amounts were found at a few locations in the mountains east of the Fairview Fire.
The precipitation is expected to continue into Sunday morning.
Precipitation, vicinity of Radford Fire, 24 hours ending 5 a.m. Sept. 10, 2022Fairview Fire map Sept. 10, 2022
There was a concern that very strong winds generated by tropical storm Kay would cause problems at the fires, but those did not materialize, at least not by 5 a.m. Saturday.
As of 5 a.m. the rain had occurred as far north as Santa Barbara and Edwards Air Force Base. It did not affect the rapidly growing Mosquito Fire 27 miles west of Lake Tahoe, CA.
Meanwhile, Red Flag Warnings are in effect Saturday for the northwest corner of California and the west sides of Washington and Oregon.
Red Flag Warnings September 10, 2022
The forecast for vertically integrated wildfire smoke predicts impacts in most of the Western States Saturday afternoon.
Forecast for smoke at 1 p.m. MDT Sept. 10, 2022. NOAA
With 35 large uncontained wildfires currently burning in the United States, and many, many more in various categories, we can’t report extensively on all of them, so today we will take a slice of geography and look briefly at seven fires spreading in the Central Idaho area, and extend it just a bit into Oregon and Montana.
Moose (Idaho)
The largest of these seven fires is the Moose, which has been chewing through eastern Idaho since July 17. As far as the cause, the Salmon National Forest says, after almost two months, it is “human caused,” which only eliminates the causes of volcano and lightning. Nine structures have been destroyed. On Friday 650 personnel are assigned to the 125,000-acre blaze which is 5 miles northwest of Salmon, ID. A satellite overflight Friday afternoon only found large heat sources in the southeast portion and that is where an additional 15,000 acres burned Wednesday night, prompting evacuations near Salmon.
Crews reengaged the fire and began preparing new contingency lines along the west edge of the city. Several water pumps, five log decks, and some portable water storage tanks (nicknamed pumpkins because of their shape and color) were destroyed Wednesday. No firefighters were injured. Nearly 500 acres of the city’s Municipal Watershed burned that night, something the various incident management teams had been trying to protect since July.
Cooler temperatures, higher relative humidity, and thick smoke contributed to minimal fire behavior across the fire Thursday.
Indian Ridge (Idaho)
Northwest of the Moose Fire near the Montana border is the lightning-caused 8,670-acre Indian Ridge Fire on the Bitterroot National Forest. It is in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness 30 miles southwest of Darby, Montana. The fire has been active this week primarily along the western and northern flanks and north of Indian Creek as it burns through steep, rugged, remote terrain with heavy surface fuels and dead standing timber.
Indian Ridge Fire the night of August 18, 2022. InciWeb.
The fire is not being fully suppressed. Their daily reporting says, “Fire managers are utilizing a point protection strategy to prevent any critical wilderness infrastructure from being negatively impacted by the fire.”
Dismal and Patrol Point
These two fires are very close to merging after significant growth since September 6, and combined have burned an estimated 23,000 acres. They are about 50 miles northwest of Salmon, Idaho. Smoke and the unavailability of infrared mapping aircraft have made it difficult to determine the current perimeters, but there is a lot of new burned acreage between the two fires. Recent low humidity and strong winds are in part responsible for the recent growth.
Areas that fire managers intend to protect include Cold Meadows Guard Station, Root Ranch, and Lantz Bar.
Fire personnel on the Williams Creek Fire in Idaho. InciWeb, posted 9-8-2022.
Williams Creek
The 11,881-acre fire is 5 miles west of Orogrande, near Wildhorse Lake, 7 miles southwest of Elk City, and 8 miles north-northwest of Dixie.
“Resources will continue to engage the fire in Orogrande and the Crooked River corridor, addressing and extinguishing hot spots and conducting damage assessments,” said a September 9 update from the Incident Management Team. “The fire and associated winds did impact structures and outbuildings; crews are still assessing the extent of the damage. Fallen trees, burned snags, and downed power lines continue to present safety hazards.”
Double Creek (Oregon)
The 137,000-acre lightning-caused Double Creek Fire is in Oregon just west of the Idaho border. It has burned to the Snake River in the Pittsburg Landing area. A River Group has been established to assess and protect structures along the waterway. The fire is being fully suppressed and crews are looking for locations to establish the control line farther from Lower Imnaha Road where topography allows. Two structures have been destroyed.
Trail Ridge (Montana)
The 13,000-acre Trail Ridge fire is on the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in Western Montana about 5 miles east of the Idaho Border and 4 miles southeast of Sula, MT. The cooler weather experienced Thursday and Friday was helpful in slowing the spread of the fire and decreasing the severity of fire behavior. It is burning above 7,000 feet elevation near the Continental Divide and there is no current or expected threat to private land and property. It is not being fully suppressed.
