Temperatures in the New South Wales inland areas on Friday will be over 100F accompanied by strong winds
Map from the New South Wales Rural Fire Service January 6 showing fires that are at the “Advice” level, meaning “A fire has started. There is no immediate danger. Stay up to date in case the situation changes.”
On Monday and Tuesday local time in New South Wales some areas west of Sydney received rain, which with the higher humidities and lower temperatures slowed the spread of fires in the area. The cooler weather will continue until Friday when the inland areas of NSW will experience temperatures over 100F, 15 percent relative humidity, 15 mph northwest winds, and a chance of dry lightning which could ignite even more fires. The hot, dry, windy weather is expected to last just for the day after which temperatures should drop back into the 80s for several days.
Smoke from fires in New South Wales as seen by Sentinel 3, January 6, 2020. Via Copernicus EMS.
In other bushfire news, Australia’s government is committing an additional $2 billion over two years to a new agency tasked with rebuilding bushfire-ravaged communities.
Data from NSW RFS .Satellite photo showing the fires on Kangaroo Island South Australia, January 6, 2020 local time. NASASatellite photo, southeastern Australia, January 6, 2020 local time. NASAOne of the fires in the East Gippsland region of Victoria, December 30, 2019. Photo by Ned Dawson for Victoria State Government.Spot fires in the East Gippsland region of Victoria, December 30, 2019. Photo by Ned Dawson for Victoria State Government.
That may be what causes allergic reactions in some people who are sensitive to smoke
Satellite photo at 5:37 p.m. MDT Sept. 13, 2018 showing smoke from wildfires in Utah and Colorado.
We have known for a long time that smoke from wildfires can be harmful to humans, but in recent years that knowledge base has increased significantly. And it may have reached a new level with research conducted by fire ecologist Leda Kobziar. After learning that some snow machines use bacteria as condensation nuclei, she started to wonder if bacteria was a component of smoke. Using petri dishes and drones she collected air and smoke samples at a prescribed fire.
Below is an excerpt from an article at KQED.org:
…Then they compared what was collected to the contents of ambient (non-smoky) air. They sampled for abundance and diversity by culturing colonies and analyzing DNA.
Turns out a surprising amount and diversity of bacterial cells and fungal spores gets lofted into wildfire smoke during a fire. The more severe the burn, the more cells it transports. This is a newly emerging area of research, but Kobziar thinks these microbes have the potential to affect human health.
“There are numerous allergens that we’ve found in the smoke. And so it may be that some people who are sensitive to smoke have that sensitivity, not only because of the particulate matter and the smoke, but also because there are some biological organisms in it.” … Possibly, she says, wildfire smoke has been a driving factor in the global distribution of microbial life.
“We think that the role that wildland fire is playing in transporting organisms through smoke has probably had some influence on the evolution of species as well and development of communities,” Kobziar said.
Early stage in the formation of the fire tornado at the Carr Fire, July 26, 2018. Screenshot from Scientific American video below.
Scientific American has produced a video that describes the formation of the fire tornado that burned and scoured a mile-long path as the Carr Fire burned into Redding, California July 26, 2018.
In the video below, click on the little square at bottom-right to see it in full screen.
There were two fatalities on the Carr Fire that day. Redding Fire Department Inspector Jeremy Stoke was burned over in his truck on Buenaventura Boulevard. On the other side of the Sacramento River, on the west side, Don Ray Smith was entrapped and killed in his dozer.
According to a Green Sheet report by CAL FIRE, the conditions that resulted in the entrapment of three dozers and the Redding Fire Department Fire Inspector that day were due to the fire tornado — a large rotating fire plume that was roughly 1,000 feet in diameter. The winds at the base were 136-165 mph (EF-3 tornado strength), as indicated by wind damage to large oak trees, scouring of the ground surface, damage to roofs of houses, and lofting of large steel power line support towers, vehicles, and a steel marine shipping container. Multiple fire vehicles had their windows blown out and their bodies damaged by flying debris.
The strong winds caused the fire to burn all live vegetation less than 1 inch in diameter. Peak temperatures likely exceeded 2,700 °F.
The Carr Fire burned 229,651 acres, destroyed 1,077 homes, and killed 3 firefighters and 5 civilians
The news media sometimes calls any little fire whirl a “fire tornado”, or even a “firenado”. These and related terms (except for “firenado”) were, if not founded, at least documented and defined in 1978 by a researcher for the National Weather Service in Missoula, David W. Goens. He grouped fire whirls into four classes:
Fire Devils. They are a natural part of fire turbulence with little influence on fire behavior or spread. They are usually on the order of 3 to 33 feet in diameter and have rotational velocities less than 22 MPH.
Fire Whirls. A meld of the fire, topograph, and meteorological factors. These play a significant role in fire spread and hazard to control personnel. The average size of this class is usually 33 to 100 feet, with rotational velocities of 22 to 67 MPH.
Fire Tornadoes. These systems begin to dominate the large scale fire dynamics. They lead to extreme hazard and control problems. In size, they average 100 to 1,000 feet in diameter and have rotational velocities up to 90 MPH.
Fire Storm. Fire behavior is extremely violent. Diameters have been observed to be from 1,000 to 10,000 feet and winds estimated in excess of 110 MPH. This is a rare phenomenon and hopefully one that is so unlikely in the forest environment that it can be disregarded.”
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Rick. Typos or errors, report them HERE.
Nine weather stations in San Diego County recorded more than 4 inches of precipitation
Above: Mt. Laguna Observatory in Eastern San Diego County at 8 a.m. PST November 21, 2019. HPWREN.
On Tuesday the remnants of tropical storm Raymond hit Southern California and the next day merged with a cold storm that formed in the Gulf of Alaska. The result was two waves of rain, lightning, wind, and in the higher elevations, snow.
Nine weather stations in San Diego County recorded more than 4 inches of precipitation. The highest total was at Lake Henshaw with 4.68 inches. Some of the moisture became snow at Mount Laguna 6,100 feet above sea level.
Highest totals of precipitation recorded in Southern California during the 48-hour time period ending at 8 a.m. PST Nov. 21, 2019. NWS.
Many other locations in San Diego County received more than an inch, but farther north Riverside, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles Counties had less.
This of course will pause the fire season in these areas and may be the season-ending weather event in the locations that were dumped on with multiple inches of precipitation.
Precipitation recorded in Southern California during the 48-hour time period ending at 8 a.m. PST Nov. 21, 2019. NWS.
Meanwhile in Northern California it was dry and very windy Tuesday and Wednesday. On Monday in the Sacramento area the Hot Dry Windy Index is predicted to be above the 95th percentile again but there is a chance of rain in the area the next day, November 26.
Hot Dry Windy Index for the area 25 miles west of Sacramento, CA. Generated November 21, 2019.
The Energy Release Component is at or above record levels in some areas of the state
The Energy Release Component (or flammability) of the vegetation in the Central Sierra area is the highest recorded for this time of the year. (Click to enlarge)
The forests and brush lands of many areas of California are ready to burn. The effects of precipitation received in the winter and spring have been negated by relentless warm, dry, and occasionally very windy weather. The recent Kincade and Maria Fires were examples of wildfire potential during strong winds.
The Energy Release Component (ERC) is a measure of the heat produced within the flaming front of a vegetation fire and is largely influenced by the moisture in the live and dead fuels. In other words, it reflects the flammability of the vegetation. The weather in the last few months in California has resulted in many areas having record or nearly record high ERCs in recent days, including the Southern Mountains, Bay Marine, Central Coast, South Coast, Central Sierra, and Santa Cruz Mountains.
The data in these ERC charts shows the most current levels being above the 97th percentile for any date and close to or above the maximum ever recorded on November 5. (Charts for more areas in California)
The Energy Release Component (or flammability) of the vegetation in the Southern California Mountains is the highest ever recorded for this time of the year.
One thing that is striking about this information is the ERC in the Central Sierra, an area where the wildfire danger usually drops quickly after September. The conditions we are seeing now are similar to or perhaps more extreme than in 2017 and 2018 before the Camp, Woolsey, Thomas, and North Bay Fires that combined destroyed over 29,000 structures in October, November, and December.
This is not normal. The fire seasons are longer than they were a couple of decades ago.
The fuel is ready now. The only things lacking are very strong winds and an ignition source.
There are no forecasts for very strong winds within the seven days in California, but wind is difficult to forecast and can sneak up on you. There is a possibility for an off-shore flow around November 15.
The three months with historically the most Santa Ana wind events are November, December, and January. The forecast for California in November is for higher than average temperatures and precipitation that is at or below average.
One-month outlook for probability of precipitation and temperature, made Oct. 31, 2019, valid in November, 2019.
It will remain high in southern California through December
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If NIFC’s analysis is correct the only area with above average potential for wildfires during the four-month period is California in November and December. According to the prediction most of the forested or brush-covered lands in the state will have enhanced potential in November. That area will shrink in December to just the southern two-thirds of California.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
From NIFC:
“Entering the outlook period, most states will remain out of fire season in November. Exceptions to this will continue to be California, Colorado, and possibly Texas where drier than average conditions will continue. Expect periodic increases in fire potential and activity during wind events that not only bring strong winds but also drier air that lowers humidity levels to critical levels. The occurrence of such events should begin to diminish in frequency later in the month as the seasonal transition begins to end. Medium range data suggests that conditions across the Southeast will continue to show improvement as the frequency of moisture events continues to increase.”
