Tag: weather

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued February 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average at times in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, parts of New Mexico and Arizona, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with most of the Plains and Texas also in drought. Most of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley saw an expansion or exacerbation of drought as well. Much of the West had a dry January, but snowpack is mostly 75% to 125% of average. Above average precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia reduced drought and fire potential concerns, while most of the Plains and Great Lakes observed below average precipitation.

“Climate outlooks through spring indicate near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are likely across the northern half of the West into the western Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is also likely across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and through much of the Great Lakes and Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. However, drier than normal conditions are expected for the southern half of the West, southern and central Plains, and portions of the Southeast, with near to above normal temperatures likely as well across these areas. Guidance also indicates this could be a potentially busy severe weather season east of the Plains, which usually portends to periods of critical fire weather conditions on the Plains behind the severe weather.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains through March while persisting on the High Plains and eastern slopes of the Front Range through April into May. Above normal potential is forecast in portions of south Texas and the Hill Country during February then spreading across far southwest Texas, much of New Mexico, and southern Arizona by May. The westward retreat of above normal significant fire potential in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas is following the expected green-up procession.

“Due to the recent widespread and in places, heavy precipitation across the Carolinas and Virginia, forecast above normal significant fire potential was removed in February. However, above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Florida Peninsular into southeast Georgia in February and likely persisting through the spring. Additionally, above normal potential is likely to expand across Florida and into the Carolinas during March and April. Lingering above normal potential is forecast to remain across Florida in May. Areas of south and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to be monitored for above normal potential.”

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with a third of the West in the highest two categories of drought…. Most of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS observed below normal precipitation with portions of the central and southern Plains receiving no precipitation during December. Above normal precipitation was observed across much of the West into portions of the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes. Temperatures were above normal for most of the CONUS except along portions of the West Coast and Montana. Abnormally dry and drought conditions expanded across the southern Plains due to the prevalence of much above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation in December.

“Climate outlooks for winter into early spring indicate above normal temperatures are likely along the southern tier of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities likely in the South. Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are expected across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley are also likely to experience above normal precipitation through March. Below normal precipitation will likely accompany above normal temperatures across the southern third of the western US, through much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Carolinas.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains January through April with several periods of critical conditions possible due to wind events. Above normal potential is forecast to expand into portions of south Texas in February then westward across far West Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeast Arizona March into April.

“Above normal significant fire potential is expected to expand from the eastern Carolinas in January into the remainder of the Carolinas and much of Florida and Georgia February through April. Above normal potential is also forecast for portions of Virginia in February that will expand into eastern West Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic for March.”

(March is at the top of the article)