News and opinion about wildland fire
In the crosshairs are portions of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska… for now
Above is the forecast from NOAA for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 5 p.m. MDT April 24, 2022.
Below is the forecast for 3 a.m. MDT April 25, 2022.
Bookmark this page where the most recent articles about smoke on Wildfire Today can always be found: https://wildfiretoday.com/tag/smoke/
Updated 8:53 a.m. MDT April 24, 2022
Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak Fire
As the wind speeds decreased from the gale force conditions seen Friday, firefighters on the Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak fires that burned together were able to re-engage Saturday. The blazes are about 10 miles north of Las Vegas, New Mexico.
Crews are working on structure protection out ahead of the fire, removing fuel near homes in order to reduce their vulnerability. Dozers are putting in fire line where the terrain permits and the seven hand crews are working in steeper, less rocky areas.
Click to see all articles on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, about the Calf Canyon, Hermits Peak, and Cooks Peak fires.
Even though the fires have merged they are still being treated separately in reports. The combined size determined by a mapping flight at 10:45 p.m. Saturday was 54,004 acres.
“We don’t have enough resources to do everything we want to do at one time so we have to prioritize the resources we have at the right location,” said Incident Commander Carl Schwope in a briefing Saturday evening.
Reports filed Friday night showed that only seven hand crews were assigned and only one of those was a higher qualified Type 1 crew. A total of 526 personnel were on the fire.
The Incident Management Team that is handling both incidents has ordered “hundreds” of resources, but those orders can only be filled if the personnel and equipment are available.
As of Saturday evening the fire had not crossed the 518 road near the junction of road 161, but it was close and the fire was active in that area.
The Hermits Peak Fire was caused by a prescribed fire that escaped on the Santa Fe National Forest at 4:30 p.m. April 6, 2022. No cause has been released for the Calf Canyon Fire first reported on April 19.
Cooks Peak Fire
The Cooks Peak Fire nine miles south of Cimarron, NM was less active than the Calf Canyon Fire, but its spread was also slowed by a decrease in winds. A mapping flight Saturday night determined it had grown to 51,982 acres.
Reports submitted Friday evening showed there were only nine hand crews assigned, with one being a highest qualified Type 1 crew. A total of 383 personnel were on the fire.
8:26 a.m. MDT April 23, 2022
Strong winds and low humidities combined to cause two fires to merge and spread 10 miles through dry vegetation in Northern New Mexico Friday. A third fire was also very active. Those fires have now burned a total of approximately 88,000 acres.
Continue reading “Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak fires burn together, spread northeast for 10 miles”
4:37 p.m. MDT April 22, 2022
Wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico plus fires in the Southeast are putting a large amount of smoke in the air. Strong winds in New Mexico and Colorado are dispersing smoke from the two large fires in New Mexico, Calf Canyon and Cooks Peak, keeping the those near surface plumes more narrow than they would be with slower wind speeds.
Vertically integrated smoke can be at any altitude. In some cases it might be only at high altitudes and may not be very noticeable at ground level. Near surface smoke will hover within 8 meters (26 feet) of the ground—the kind responsible for burning eyes and aggravated asthma.
Click to see all articles on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, about the Calf Canyon, Hermits Peak, and Cooks Peak fires.
This is where much of that smoke is coming from…..
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized31 Comments on Executive Order to inventory and protect old-growth forests In a two year period 13 to 19 percent of all giant sequoias in their natural range over four feet in diameter were killed by fire
Today, on Earth Day, President Biden will sign an Executive Order to conduct the first-ever inventory of mature and old-growth forests on federal lands. This will be completed and made publicly available in a year with the objective of establishing consistent definitions and accounting for regional and ecological variation. The agencies will then analyze threats facing these forests, including from wildfires and other climate impacts.
After completing the inventory, the Departments of Interior and Agriculture will develop new policies, after public comment, to institutionalize climate-smart management and conservation strategies that address the threats facing mature and old-growth forests on federal lands.
We are losing thousands of giant sequoia trees that can live for 3,000 years
Nowhere is the need for protecting old growth forests more obvious than in the giant sequoia groves in California. In a two year period 13 to 19 percent of all giant sequoias in their natural range over four feet in diameter were killed by fire (and neglect) or will die in the next few years. In 2020, 10 to 14 percent of the entire Sierra Nevada population of giant sequoia trees over 4 feet in diameter were killed in the Castle Fire. Early estimates after two fires the following year, the KNP Complex and the Windy Fire, 2,261 to 3,637 sequoias over four feet in diameter were killed or will die within the next three to five years. These losses make up an estimated additional 3-5% of the entire Sierra Nevada sequoia population over four feet in diameter.
Under normal conditions giant sequoia trees can live for more than 3,000 years, which is 38 times the life expectancy of a human in the United States. The multi-year drought and higher temperatures have led to extremely dry fuel moistures which is causing wildfires in California and other areas to burn with unusual intensity, making even some of the giant sequoias with bark up to a foot thick susceptible to wildfires burning under these conditions.
It is probably safe to assume that when large fires are burning most of the priorities of the Multi-Agency Coordinating Groups for allocating scarce resources are decided by individuals with a history of on the ground firefighting. They may have a bias toward allocating more fire personnel to protect buildings, rather than fires where 3,000-year old trees 300 feet tall and 20 feet in diameter are being destroyed.
Since only approximately 100,000 of these mammoth trees are left that are larger than four feet in diameter, government employees allocating firefighting resources need to strongly consider the value of these treasures to the nation and the world, and that some of them have been living for thousands of years. It is disheartening to see hundreds of them destroyed in a matter of hours, especially if due in part to sending resources, instead, to protect structures that have not been hardened to FireSafe standards or constructed under reasonable county and city building codes.
The giant sequoias have already been inventoried. We know where they are. What NEEDS to be done is to ramp up the management of the fuels beneath these big trees, and greatly increase the prescribed fire programs around them on lands managed by the National Park Service, Forest Service, and Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Extreme fire weather predicted with wind gusts more than 50 mph
Updated 4:14 p.m. MDT April 22, 2022
Additional evacuations have been ordered for the Calf Canyon and the nearby Hermits Peak Fires in Northern New Mexico. They were posted at 1 p.m. April 22 by San Miguel and mora Counties in New Mexico. A map is available on Facebook but it is almost undecipherable. Below is a list of the areas affected.
The satellite photo above shows a large plume of smoke from the Calf Canyon Fire which was blowing northeast over the Cooks Fire when the photo was taken at 3:36 p.m. MDT Friday. It appears that pyrocumulus was forming over the Cooks Peak Fire, indicating extreme fire behavior.
Click to see all articles on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, about the Calf Canyon, Hermits Peak, and Cooks Peak fires.
At 3:04 p.m. MT Friday the Bartley weather station north of the Calf Fire recorded 17 mph winds gusting from the south at 35 mph. The relative humidity was 11 percent.
Smoke maps are posted in another article on Wildfire Today.
9 a.m. MDT April 22, 2022
The critical and extreme fire weather predicted for areas in New Mexico and Colorado on Friday will affect the three existing wildfires in Northern New Mexico on Friday and Saturday.
The Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak Fires are 24 and 27 miles, respectively, east of Santa Fe, and are northwest of Las Vegas, NM.
The Calf Canyon Fire was very active Thursday, creating a large smoke plume as it spread primarily north and northeast. It was listed at 2,877 acres Thursday night.
The Hermits Peak Fire has been fairly quiet in recent days and is nearing containment. The strong winds will test the fire lines on the 7,573-acre blaze.
The 21,000-acre Cooks Peak Fire 13 miles south of Cimarron was also very active Thursday as it grew to the north and northeast.
The Storm Prediction Center’s forecast for Northeast New Mexico and Eastern Colorado on Friday is for “5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same time, 30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with widespread gusts of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels.” There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms with lightning and little or no rain.
The specific forecast for the Calf Canyon Fire calls for southwest winds of 46 mph gusting up to 64 mph with relative humidity in the teens and 20s. It will also be very windy on Saturday. Conditions on the Cooks Peak Fire will be similar, but with the humidity dropping into the single digits.
The southwest winds on Friday will shift to come out of the west-southwest Friday night, then from the west on Saturday. The speeds will decrease Friday night and Saturday, but will still be sustained in the mid-20s with gusts in the 30s.
These dangerous conditions will be conducive to significant spreading of the Cooks Peak and Calf Canyon Fires to the northeast and east.
“Friday’s expected weather could rival the most powerful fire events of the past decade,” said a NWS meteorologist
Updated 7:22 a.m. MDT April 22, 2022
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Fire Weather Outlook for 6 a.m. MDT Friday April 22 until 6 a.m. MDT Saturday April 23 that uses language we rarely see in a fire weather forecast, including “extremely critical” and “dangerous”.
The forecast warns about extremely critical fire weather conditions in portions of central and eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado, and critical fire weather for portions of the southern and central high plains.
Click to see all articles on Wildfire Today, including the most recent, about the Calf Canyon, Hermits Peak, and Cooks Peak fires.
Sustained winds out of the south-southwest at 30 to 40 mph with widespread gusts of 50-60 mph are expected with 5 to 15 percent relative humidity. The fuels are exceptionally dry and isolated thunderstorms with little or no rain are possible in some areas.
Three existing fires in northern New Mexico east and northeast of Santa Fe could be vulnerable to extreme conditions, the Cooks Peak Fire, Calf Canyon Fire, and the Hermits Peak Fire. Friday’s forecast for the Calf Canyon Fire, which was very active Thursday, calls for southwest winds of 46 mph gusting to 64 mph with relative humidity in the teens and 20s. It will also be very windy on Saturday.
In Northern New Mexico the wind speeds will increase through the morning, peaking in the afternoon.
CNN is taking this forecast seriously in an article written by four of their meteorologists. Here are some excerpts:
Friday’s expected weather could rival the most powerful fire events of the past decade, Zach Hiris, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Boulder, Colorado, told CNN.
Compared to recent extremely critical, wind-driven fire dangers in rural areas, some major population centers are threatened in this event, including Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Colorado Springs and the Denver metro area in Colorado.
“There is high confidence that a widespread extreme and potentially catastrophic fire weather event will occur on Friday,” said the National Weather Service office in Albuquerque.
In addition to fueling the fires, widespread wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph — and even 80 mph in scattered areas — could knock down large tree limbs, utility poles and other structures while threatening to topple high-profile vehicles, the weather service said.
Here is the forecast produced by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center at 12:20 p.m. MDT Thursday April 21:
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022
Valid 221200Z – 231200Z
…EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO… …CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
…Synopsis… ***DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO***
A highly amplified large-scale trough and accompanying intense deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by peak heating. As a result, strong cyclogenesis will occur over far northeastern Colorado during the afternoon, with a sharpening dryline extending southward along the Kansas/Colorado border and the Texas/New Mexico border. The combination of a strong surface pressure gradient, hot/dry conditions behind the dryline, and strong south-southwesterly flow aloft will result in extremely critical fire-weather conditions from east-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado today.
…East-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado… As temperatures climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s behind the sharpening dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing into very dry air aloft will result in widespread 5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same time, 30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with widespread gusts of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th+ percentile). The volatile combination of very strong/gusty winds, anomalously warm/dry conditions, and near-record dry fuels will encourage extreme fire-weather conditions.
…Remainder of the central and southern High Plains… The eastern extent of critical fire-weather conditions will be demarcated by the placement of the dryline. Strong 30+ mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) concurrent with afternoon RH values below 20% will extend into southern New Mexico, West Texas, the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and western Nebraska — where fuels remain critically dry.
…Dry Thunderstorm Potential… Another point of concern will be isolated dry thunderstorm development immediately along and ahead of the dryline this afternoon, which is expected to take place along the axis of the driest fuels. Any cloud-to-ground lightning flashes that can occur in proximity to the Colorado/Kansas and New Mexico/Texas border area will do so over very receptive fuels, and likely with little wetting rainfall at the early stages of thunderstorm evolution.
..Jirak.. 04/22/2022
(end of forecast)
Below is the forecast for the area near the Calf Canyon fire 23 miles east of Santa Fe.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Rick.
