NIFC’s wildfire potential outlook, January through April
The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought, with a third of the West in the highest two categories of drought…. Most of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS observed below normal precipitation with portions of the central and southern Plains receiving no precipitation during December. Above normal precipitation was observed across much of the West into portions of the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes. Temperatures were above normal for most of the CONUS except along portions of the West Coast and Montana. Abnormally dry and drought conditions expanded across the southern Plains due to the prevalence of much above normal temperatures and little to no precipitation in December.
“Climate outlooks for winter into early spring indicate above normal temperatures are likely along the southern tier of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities likely in the South. Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are expected across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. The Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley are also likely to experience above normal precipitation through March. Below normal precipitation will likely accompany above normal temperatures across the southern third of the western US, through much of Texas, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Carolinas.
“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for much of the central and southern Plains January through April with several periods of critical conditions possible due to wind events. Above normal potential is forecast to expand into portions of south Texas in February then westward across far West Texas, southern New Mexico, and southeast Arizona March into April.
“Above normal significant fire potential is expected to expand from the eastern Carolinas in January into the remainder of the Carolinas and much of Florida and Georgia February through April. Above normal potential is also forecast for portions of Virginia in February that will expand into eastern West Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic for March.”
County authorities have have released a preliminary list of the addresses of structures that were destroyed or damaged in the Marshall Fire southeast of Boulder, Colorado. They described it as partial and incomplete at 2 p.m. January 1, 2022.
From the Denver Gazette, Saturday evening:
Three people are missing and feared dead in the wake of the Marshall fire, the Boulder County sheriff said Saturday [afternoon], and nearly 1,000 structures have been destroyed, making the blaze by far the most destructive in Colorado history.
Two of the three missing persons are in Superior, and the third is in the Marshall area, Sheriff Joe Pelle said. He said the search is likely a recovery one, meaning authorities are looking for remains. The missing people’s homes have been destroyed, he said, and cadaver dogs will be brought in Sunday. The debris and snow have “hampered substantially” efforts to search for the missing.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Minnie and Pat.
6:12 p.m. MST Jan. 1, 2022
Map, Marshall Fire, Dec. 31, 2021.
Unlike most states, in Colorado county sheriffs have statutory responsibility to coordinate wildland fire response within their county. Boulder County, the location of the Marshall Fire, has five year-round employees with fire responsibilities. They also hire seasonal firefighters during the traditional wildland fire season.
Saturday afternoon Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle released damage assessment numbers for the 6,000-acre Marshall Fire southeast of Boulder.
Total numbers are 991 structures destroyed and 127 damaged.
The Sheriff did not specify how many of the structures were homes. Therefore, the numbers could include backyard sheds and other small uninhabited buildings.
What caused the Marshall fire?
Boulder County has clarified information that was previously released about the cause of the fire. In a press conference Friday morning, Sheriff Pelle told reporters that someone told fire authorities that there was a downed power line near where the fire started. But origin and cause investigators had not examined the scene, he said, and the specific cause had not been officially confirmed.
Saturday afternoon the Boulder Office of Emergency Management released a statement:
As of last night, no downed power lines had been located in the area [of the origin]. There were some downed telecommunication lines, but these are not likely to have started the blaze. The sheriff did confirm that one search warrant has been obtained, but he declined to release any additional information about the location or reason for the warrant.
Early Friday morning, about 20 hours after the Marshall Fire ignited, a drone operated by Twitter user WxChasing/Brandon Clement flew over subdivisions that were devastated by the December 30 fire. It found block after block of ash piles, some still smoldering. In many scenes there was scarcely a structure still standing. (Scroll down to see the video.)
All of the reasons why some houses did not burn even though dozens around them were consumed could not be determined from the video, but there was one common feature — the survivors were more distant from the neighboring homes. Many houses in the subdivisions were only 10 to 20 feet apart based on archived imagery in Google Earth.
The fire was driven by very strong winds gusting at 60 to 100 mph, extremely dry conditions after months of drought, and relative humidity in the mid-20s. These are the very worst fire conditions. The weather paired with the nearly back to back structures led to the fire spreading through a continuous human-made fuel bed. When one house burned the convective and radiant heat easily ignited its neighbor, which ignited its neighbor, etc.
The fire in the vegetation and structures lofted burning materials far downwind, creating distant spot fires in the home ignition zone on bone dry lawns, mulch beds around ornamental plants, and on structures. It is unknown at this point how many had been designed and built to be fire resistant, such as the characteristics of the roof, vents, siding, doors, windows, foundation, fences, eaves, and decks. A FEMA publication (13 MB) has excellent detailed recommendations. Headwaters Economics found that the cost of building a fire-resistant home is about the same as a standard home. Local building codes could regulate these features. But if the lot size is so small that residences are only 10 to 20 feet apart, if one becomes fully involved, the neighbors also burn, especially during windy conditions.
So far we have listed some factors that affect the vulnerably of structures during a wildland-urban interface fire: home spacing and lot size, the envelope of the structure itself, fire codes, and the home ignition zone. Others are:
Safety zones where residents can shelter in place;
Road and driveway width, wide enough for large fire trucks;
Turnarounds at the end of roads;
Signage, and;
Emergency water supply.
The video below of the Marshall Fire devastation was shot by WxChasing/Brandon Clement at first light on December 31, 2021, the day after the fire started. Not long after, snow began falling. The National Weather Service in nearby Boulder recorded an accumulation of eight inches.
She appeared in fire prevention public service announcements
Betty White and Smokey Bear in One Less Spark, 2013.
Today the world lost one of its most beloved actresses, Betty White, who passed away weeks before her 100th birthday.
She worked in radio, television, and films for nine decades and may be best known for her work on the Mary Tyler Moore Show, Golden Girls, and Hot in Cleveland. She is also the only guest host of Saturday Night Live to receive a standing ovation at the end of the show.
Betty White and Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell, November 9, 2010
But firefighters may remember her as an advocate for wildfire prevention and for the public service announcements she filmed. In 2010 she was appointed to the position of Honorary Forest Ranger. She said in interviews that she wanted to be a forest ranger as a little girl, but that women were not allowed to do that then. She was born in 1922.
The video below is part of a playlist of three very short pieces featuring Ms. White’s fire prevention activities.
YouTube won’t let the video below be added to the playlist because “it is intended for kids.” The 90-second video produced by the US Forest Service shows her being appointed to her position of Honorary Forest Ranger.
The fire destroyed hundreds of homes southeast of Boulder, Colorado
Updated at 3:47 p.m. MST Dec. 31, 2021
Photo from a traffic camera in Boulder, CO at 3:44 p.m. Friday. Credit: city of Boulder.
Judging from the photo above taken in Boulder, Colorado at 3:44 p.m. the weather forecast was correct. Forecasters are predicting an additional six inches or so through noon Saturday in the area of the Marshall Fire.
Updated 12:40 p.m. MST Dec. 31, 2021
Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle said in a briefing Friday morning that there have been no reports of fatalities on the 6,025-acre Marshall Fire southeast of Boulder, Colorado. That could change as crews assess the impacts of the fire, but if the number remains at zero, it would be very remarkable considering the rapid spread of the blaze which allowed some residents only minutes to escape. It is also a testament to the amazing job done by firefighters and law enforcement to make the necessary notifications, which no doubt saved lives.
Friday morning there is very little remaining fire activity, other than smoldering remains of destroyed structures. Firefighters do not expect the perimeter to grow, especially in light of the snow in the forecast.
The one person reported as missing has been found.
There are 1,778 homes within the perimeter of the fire, but not all of them were affected by the fire, which burned in a mosaic pattern. Some entire subdivisions were “totally gone,” the Sheriff said, including the the Sagamore subdivision just west of Superior and the Old Town Superior area. Dozens more burned homes are west of Superior in the Marshall area, and on the south side of Louisville.
Governor Jared Polis and the Sheriff said Friday that there could be as many as 500 to 1,000 homes that were destroyed. That could be an increase from the estimated 580 figure released by the Sheriff Thursday evening. There were also a number of commercial properties damaged or destroyed.
As entire subdivisions were wiped out, many household plumbing systems were also damaged or destroyed, which led to water gushing from the remains of structures. This depleted the water available at fire hydrants which became a challenge for firefighters. Louisville residents were advised to either boil their water or use bottled water for drinking, making ice, and other uses because the city changed its water distribution to untreated water in its efforts to make water available to firefighters. Other communities with boil water advisories include Superior, Louisville, San Souci Mobile Home Park, East Boulder County Water District, and the Eldorado Artesian Spring water users.
President Biden has approved a disaster declaration which will be finalized Friday. This will expedite approvals of assistance for home owners and small businesses that suffered losses.
Sheriff Pelle said the wind blew down power lines near the point of origin of the fire, but the specific cause has not been confirmed.
On Friday about 200 people were staying in emergency shelters.
The Incident Commander said the strategy during the first few hours was not to attempt to suppress the fire, but the priority was life safety, notifying residents and implementation of the evacuation. With 50 to 100 mph winds, suppression would have been futile. Later when the evacuation was complete and the wind speeds had decreased, they were able to begin working on the flanks.
The Sheriff said “a federal incident commander” will be relieving the IC that has been running the fire since Thursday morning. This sounds like an interagency incident management team (IMT) has been ordered. The National Situation Report dated 7:30 Friday morning lists no fires in Colorado or the assignment of any IMTs. This is an oversight at the National Interagency Fire Center, which is no doubt working with a skeleton staff during the holidays.
The map of the fire was updated late Friday morning, increasing the size by 20 acres, bringing the total up to 6,025. The tweaks were minor and involved a few changes in the perimeter south of Marshall Lake and on the east side near the intersection of Dillon Road and S. 96th Street.
Overnight mapping Thursday night found that the Marshall Fire southeast of Boulder, Colorado had burned about 6,000 acres. The fire started at 10:30 Thursday morning and was pushed by wind that in some areas gusted up to 100 mph while the relative humidity was in the 20s. Tens of thousands of residents have been under evacuation orders. At least 580 homes, a shopping center, and a hotel burned. That number will increase in the coming days as authorities are able to access the area.
Evacuation areas, Marshall Fire. Map accessed at 6:30 a.m. Dec. 31, 2021. More details.
All patients were evacuated from the Avista Adventist Hospital in Louisville. The Good Samaritan Medical Center in Lafayette transferred about 54 of their most critical patients to other facilities.
No deaths have been reported, but at 5 p.m. Thursday Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle said, “Due to the magnitude of this fire, the intensity of this fire, and its presence in such a heavily populated area we would not be surprised if there are fatalities.”
Thursday afternoon the Target shopping complex and the Element Hotel in Superior were burning.
Vicinity Map, Marshall Fire, Dec. 30, 2021.
Fire officials said the cause of the fire was likely downed power lines during the extreme winds.
The weather has changed for the better, as least from a firefighting viewpoint. The 50 to 100 mph winds with low humidities are being replaced Friday morning with temperatures around freezing and a 40 percent chance of snow. By 11 a.m. that chance will increase to 76 percent, then 96 percent by sunset. Snow accumulations are predicted to be 0.6 inch during the day on Friday, with another 5 inches overnight and into Saturday morning. The wind Friday will be out of the north switching to the east at 7 to 9 mph gusting in the afternoon to 16 mph. We don’t often include wind chill in our articles about ongoing wildfires, but that will be a factor today, 250 dropping to 17o by 5 p.m.
Large fires are currently burning in Colorado and Argentina
While 580 homes are burning in the Marshall Fire near Boulder Colorado, 6,000 miles to the south firefighters are battling numerous wildfires in Argentina. This is not common.
The video below is from the Associated press.
A helicopter under contract to the government of Argentina crashed Wednesday, Dec. 29 while working on a wildfire in the Patagonia region of the country according to local press reports. The two on board, a pilot and a mechanic, were killed.
The forecast for wildland fire potential issued January 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that for the next four months the potential for wildfires will be higher than average in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the central and southern plains.
