Michael Bakkela. Photo: Jackson County Sheriff office.
A grand jury has indicted a 41-year old man for setting a fire in Phoenix, Oregon on September 8, the day the Almeda Drive Fire started near Ashland. Michael Jarrod Bakkela was arraigned on 2 counts of Arson in the First Degree, 15 counts of Criminal Mischief in the First Degree, 14 counts of Recklessly Endangering Another Person, and one count for Unlawful Possession of Methamphetamine.
Mr. Bakkela, who is being held on bail of $5 million, is accused of starting a fire that damaged 15 properties between Phoenix and Medford that contributed to the Almeda Drive Fire.
The Jackson County Sheriff’s Office announced September 15 that at least 2,357 structures were destroyed in the Almeda Drive Fire, which started north of Ashland and rapidly spread northwest through Talent, then Phoenix, and was finally stopped south of Medford.
Map of the Almeda Drive Fire in Southern Oregon, September 10, 2020. Google/Wildfire Today/NIFC
The wording of the indictment implies that the fire allegedly started by Mr. Bakkela merged with the Almeda Drive Fire.
From Oregon Live:
According to the county Sheriff’s Office, residents in the 1100 block of Quail Lane called 911 at 5:09 p.m. Sept. 8 to report that a man, later identified as Bakkela, was lighting a fire near the railroad tracks behind their home. A deputy took Bakkela into custody a short time later.
Detectives suspect Bakkela drove into a gated area, parked a vehicle, started a fire and then fled north before he was stopped, according to the Sheriff’s Office.
Darron Williams welcomes Canadian firefighters from the Merritt Fire Zone, B.C. L to R: Edge, John Noel, Darron Williams, Kendra Finch, and Steffens Hunt. NWCC photo.
Approximately 300 firefighters from Canada are in Washington and Oregon assisting with the Siege of ’20.
Canadian firefighters arrive in Redmond, Oregon. US Forest Service photo by Andre’ Ruoti.
Near-surface smoke, at 2 p.m. MDT September 19, 2020. NOAA. Near-surface smoke refers to the smoke that will hover within 8 meters (26 feet) of the ground—the kind responsible for burning eyes and aggravated asthma.
The text in the Tweet below is about Utah, but the map shows the smoke forecast for the Western U.S. through Monday morning. After you click to begin the animation, you can click again to stop and start it.
Wildfire Smoke Update
Areas of haze from wildfire smoke to our west will increase a bit tomorrow, especially later in the day. Note, this will be less dense than the smoke we saw this morning. Periods of haze will remain possible into the upcoming week. #utwxpic.twitter.com/TMLroL297p
Granite Mountain Hotshots hike to the Yarnell Hill Fire, the morning of June 30, 2013. Photo by Joy Collura.
When crews of wildland firefighters in a remote area have to quickly move to a safer location due to an approaching flaming front, they hike on what they call an escape route to get to a safety zone where they can be out of danger without having to deploy their fire shelters. An average of 11 firefighters die each year while fighting fire. Of these deaths, about 44 percent are caused by entrapment or burnover events.
A key to moving to a safety zone is the travel time. Underestimating the required time can be fatal, in the worst of circumstances. That may or may not have been one of the many factors involved in the deaths of 19 firefighters on the 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona.
Firefighters know how long it takes them to hike the three miles within less than 45 minutes while carrying 45 pounds as required by the Pack Test, or Work Capacity Test. From that it’s pretty easy to calculate their miles per hour. But that is on flat ground, a situation that is not always the case when escaping from a wildfire. Throw in steep uphill or downhill slopes, and the times will increase.
Previous research on the subject includes:
A paper published in 2017 looked at the use of LiDAR to analyze the effects of slope, vegetation density, and ground surface roughness on travel rates for wildland firefighters’ escape routes.
A research paper that was published July 8, 2019, written by Michael J. Campbell, Wesley G. Page, Philip E. Dennison, and Bret W. Butler. It is titled, Escape Route Index: A Spatially-Explicit Measure of Wildland Firefighter Egress Capacity.
A new study uses a different database for the speed at which fire crews can hike. It is titled, “Modeling Wildland Firefighter Travel Rates by Terrain Slope: Results from GPS-Tracking of Type 1 Crew Movement.” (download, 2.3 Mb)
As the name implies, instead of using public crowd-sourced hiking speed data, the researchers issued GPS units to nine Type 1 Interagency Hotshot Crews in the Spring of 2019. Nine of the 11 participating IHCs received seven GPS units each, and the other two received 20 GPS units each. In addition to the GPS units, crews were provided with data collection sheets and armbands to carry the GPS units.
Using data collected by firefighters — a uniquely physically fit population that usually carries heavy loads while moving — provides a set of robust, adjustable travel rate models built from instantaneous travel rate data that can be applied in a variety of contexts.
The data was collected while on training hikes. Rather than rely on GPS for elevation, which is not always accurate, only locations having the more accurate lidar data were used.
The tables below are from the research paper.
Demographics of the Type 1 crews.
Here is an excerpt from the paper:
“The effects of the slope on the instantaneous travel rate were assessed by three models generated using non-linear quantile regression, representing low (bottom third), moderate (middle third), and high (upper third) rates of travel, which were validated using k-fold cross-validation. The models peak at about -3o (downhill) slope, similar to previous slope-dependent travel rate functions. The moderate firefighter travel rate model mostly predicts faster movement than previous slope-dependent travel rate functions, suggesting that firefighters generally move faster than non-firefighting personnel while hiking. Steepness was also found to have a smaller effect on firefighter travel rates than previously predicted. The travel rate functions produced by this study provide guidelines for firefighter escape route travel rates and allow for more accurate and flexible wildland firefighting safety planning.”
The authors of the paper are, Patrick R. Sullivan, Michael J. Campbell, Philip E. Dennison, Simon C. Brewer, and Bret W. Butler.
3-D map of the Bobcat Fire, current at 8:15 p.m. PDT Sept. 18, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours earlier. Looking south.
Friday afternoon strong winds gusting up to 35 mph pushed the Bobcat Fire north down-slope out of the Angeles National Forest into the Antelope Valley foothill communities of Juniper Hills and Valyermo. Structures burned, but no details have been released.
The Incident Management Team reports that the perimeter now envelops 91,017 acres.
Map of the Bobcat Fire, current at 8:15 p.m. PDT Sept. 18, 2020. The white line was the perimeter about 24 hours earlier.Bobcat Fire in Juniper Hills, CA. Sept. 18, 2020. Photo by Jeff Zimmerman.Air Tanker 131, a C-130, (N130FF) drops on the Bobcat Fire Sept. 18, 2020. InciWeb.Bobcat Fire, Antelope Valley, Sept. 18, 2020. Photos by Jeff Zimmerman.
Updated September 18, 2020 | 7:06 p.m. MDT
North end of the Bobcat Fire spreads into the Antelope Valley, at 6:19 p.m. PDT Sept 18, 2020. NBC4 Los Angeles.
The Bobcat Fire is being pushed northeast into the Antelope Valley by strong winds out of the southwest — 10 mph hour gusting to 35 mph, with 90 degree temperatures and 9 percent relative humidity.
The incident management team had constructed contingency control lines with dozers to prevent the fire from getting into the valley, but the strong winds pushed the flames across the lines. An additional 60 fire engines were called in Friday to augment the forces already on scene.
The LA County Sheriff has issued new evacuation orders and/or warnings for the north and east sides of the fire.
Many of the 10 air tankers were reloading with retardant at the San Bernardino Airport, but late in the afternoon the air tanker base there was running very low on retardant, and directed that the tankers go to alternative bases for their next load. They were expecting that by the time the load after that was needed, the temporary shortage would be mitigated.
North end of the Bobcat Fire spreads into the Antelope Valley, at 6:19 p.m. PDT Sept 18, 2020. NBC4 Los Angeles.
Updated September 18, 2020 | 4:45 p.m. PDT
Map of the Bobcat Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 8:18 p.m. PDT Sept. 17. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 1:36 p.m. PDT Sept. 18, 2020.
Friday afternoon the northern end of the Bobcat Fire pushed down into the foothills at Juniper Hill and Valyermo. Some structures in the area were destroyed and more evacuation orders were issued. The LA County Sheriff has the latest evacuation information.
Firefighters had to briefly shelter in Fire Station 79 on Valyermo Road as the fire moved through the area. There was a report that a pumphouse at the station burned when the fire spread across the road.
Juniper hills structure burns in Bobcat Fire, September 18, 2020. Photo by Jeff Zimmerman.
While the fire burns into the desert floor, it is also pushing west, again threatening Mt. Wilson Observatory where approximately six large air tankers are working to slow the spread.
A helicopter is igniting a burning operation, or “strategic aerial firing”, on the eastern perimeter to strengthen containment lines and slow the spread to the east.
There are reports that the community of Big Pines at the intersection of Big Pines Highway and Angeles Crest Highway/2 is threatened.
DC-10 air tanker near Mt. Wilson on the Bobcat Fire at 5:08 p.m. PDT Sept 18, 2020.
September 18, 2020 | 8:33 a.m. PDT
3-D map of the Bobcat Fire, looking south. The red line was the perimeter at 8:18 p.m. PDT Sept. 17, 2020.
The Bobcat Fire in the Angeles National Forest north of Arcadia continued its spread north on Thursday, advancing north of Highway 2.
From the Incident Management Team:
“The Bobcat Fire had very active fire growth in the north end of the perimeter where it reached Juniper Hills and the communities around it, additional aviation assets were requested. Due to the increased fire activity and spread, evacuation orders were expanded to include the northern foothill communities. As the top end of the fire heads northwest and northeast, crews and aviation assets continued to work to keep the fire south of Pearblossom.
“On the west end of the fire, firefighters will be scouting for additional opportunities to build both indirect and direct fire lines to protect the area around Chilao. Fire activity remained active around Mt. Wilson with crews and equipment working very hard to protect infrastructure. To the east, downslope winds activated eastward fire movement near the San Gabriel Reservoir.”
An evacuation warning was issued Thursday night for residents in the unincorporated community of Wrightwood approximately 10 miles east of the fire.
The blaze was mapped overnight at 60,557 acres.
Map of the Bobcat Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 8:18 p.m. PDT Sept. 17. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:06 a.m. PDT Sept. 18, 2020.
The wildfire started from gender-reveal party pyrotechnics
The U.S. Forest Service announced in a news release this morning that a firefighter was killed while working on the El Dorado Fire in Southern California Thursday, September 17, 2020. Neither the name nor the circumstances were released.
CBS News reported that the firefighter had been missing.
Crews had been trying to locate the firefighter, who went missing in the San Bernardino National Forest while fighting the El Dorado Fire, officials said Thursday night, CBS Los Angeles reported. The firefighter was found dead, according to San Bernardino National Forest Public Information Officer Kate Kramer.
This blaze which has burned about 19,000 acres and destroyed 4 homes was started by a smoke-generating pyrotechnic device used at a gender reveal party September 5, 2020.
The fire is northeast of Yucaipa just west of the Apple Fire that burned 33,000 acres 5 weeks ago.
Our sincere condolences go out to the firefighter’s family, friends, and co-workers.
