News and opinion about wildland fire
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized2 Comments on Smoke and air quality forecasts and maps, October 3-4, 2020 October 3, 2020 | 10:40 a.m. PDT
The first two maps are for air quality, from AirNow.gov. The first was current at 10 a.m. PDT October 3. The second is the forecast for Sunday, October 4.
The map below is the forecast for near surface wildfire smoke at noon PDT, Saturday October 3, 2020. The one after that is the forecast for 1 a.m. PDT Oct. 4, 2020. It is interesting that the air quality maps (above) do not detect or predict a serious air quality issue in Colorado around the Mullen Fire.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Wildfire2 Comments on Mullen Fire spreads from Wyoming into Colorado Evacuations are in effect
October 2, 2020 | 7:57 a.m. MDT
The Mullen Fire that started September 17 in Wyoming 12 miles north of the Colorado border has spread south into Colorado. At 12:15 a.m. Friday a mapping flight determined it had progressed to the intersection of Colorado Highways 127 and 125 about four miles north of Cowdrey. Firefighters are conducting strategic firing operations along portions of Highway 127 and Wyoming Highway 230 to protect structures.
In Colorado the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office has ordered evacuations for “the east side of Jackson County Road 8 along the eastern range north to the sand dunes following up to Highway 127, and along Jackson County Road 6E.” The most current information is on CodeRED and on the Sheriff’s Office Facebook page.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Mullen Fire, including the most recent, click here.
On Thursday the incident management team reported that the Mullen Fire had burned 118,778 acres. After an overnight mapping flight the team may add another 8,000 to 9,000 acres to that figure. (Update at 12:56 p.m. October 2: the incident management team updated the size to 127,503 acres.)
The Mullen Fire is producing large quantities of smoke that has been pushed to the south and southeast. On Friday it is predicted to heavily affect Rocky Mountain National Park, Boulder, and Denver.
The fire area is under a Red Flag Warning Friday. The forecast for the southern portion of the fire calls for a high temperature of 62, relative humidity of 16 percent, and winds from the west and northwest at 13 to 16 mph. Conditions will be similar on Saturday, with slightly stronger winds and slightly higher humidity.
The 125,271-acre Cameron Peak Fire, 26 miles southwest of the Mullen Fire, has been growing much more slowly than the Mullen Fire in recent days.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized3 Comments on Forecast for wildfire smoke, October 2, 2020 
The fire forecast through January has been released
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued October 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts higher than average wildfire potential in October for portions of Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and most of California.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and into winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through October with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Significant fire potential remains above normal for California due to the number of active large fires, near record dry fuels, and offshore wind events.
“Above normal significant fire potential is expected across much of California, Arizona, eastern Nevada, Utah, Colorado Rockies, and southern Wyoming in October. However, fire activity and potential will likely diminish across the West, except for portions of California, and remain normal over the Eastern and Southern Areas through November. Elevated periods of fire activity are likely in portions of Oklahoma and Texas and possibly in other locations in the Southern Area during fall into winter.”
A fourth person has been killed
Four people have died and 74 residences plus 73 other structures have been destroyed in the Zogg Fire southwest of Redding, California. The fourth fatality was announced by fire officials Wednesday. A person was found badly burned and was pronounced dead after being transported to a hospital.
CAL FIRE said Thursday morning the blaze has burned 55,303 acres.
The fire was not as active Wednesday has it had been in recent days. Most of the spread was on the northwest and southeast sides. Crews completed firing operations along critical sections of the fireline. Live fuel moistures in the area are at a very low critical level, about 60 percent, and the 1000-hour time lag dead fuel moistures are 7 percent. The lower the fuel moisture, the faster a fire spreads. Kiln-dried lumber is usually at about 12 percent.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Zogg Fire, including the most recent, click here.
The weather forecast for the Zogg Fire Thursday calls for 100 degrees, 6 to 9 mph winds out of the northwest in the morning switching to northeast in the afternoon, with 7 percent relative humidity.
The dry fuels with the hot and dry forecast has led to a fire behavior forecast if there is a slopover or spot fire, for rates of spread of around 1 mph and a spotting distance of up to half a mile.
Resources assigned include 133 fire engines, 52 water tenders, 13 helicopters, 31 hand crews, and 37 dozers for a total of 1,538 personnel.
The fire has burned well over 48,000 acres near the Napa Valley of northern California
Updated October 1, 2020 | 10:26 a.m. PDT
The Glass Fire near California’s Napa Valley was very active again Wednesday, adding about 8,000 acres to bring the size up to 56,781 acres according to CAL FIRE Thursday morning. The agency reported that 143 residences and 105 other structures have been destroyed since the blaze started September 27.
The growth Wednesday was primarily in four areas:
The area is under a Red Flag Warning through Friday. Gusty north to northwest winds, very low humidity, and extremely dry fuels have produced critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Northwest winds will increase Thursday night into Friday morning with gusts of 25 to 30 mph with little or no humidity recovery overnight. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the Friday burn period with continued hot temperatures. The relative humidity Thursday will be generally in the teens, with a high temperature at Santa Rosa of 96 degrees.
September 30, 2020 | 4:23 p.m. PDT
CAL FIRE revealed September 29 that two firefighters deployed fire shelters at the Glass Fire September 27, 2020. The individuals were not injured, but several transport support vehicles were damaged.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Glass Fire, including the most recent, click here.
The weather Thursday and Friday could increase activity on the blaze. Strong winds and a Red Flag Warning are predicted for 1 p.m. Thursday through 6 p.m. Friday for 10-20 mph northwest winds with 25-30 mph gusts in the higher elevations.
The north end of the fire north of Calistoga has moved into much more rugged terrain — the southeast side of Robert Louis Stevenson State Park. The last time that area burned was 56 years ago during the C. Hanly Fire of 1964. In 2017 the Tubbs Fire, west of the Glass Fire, burned exceedingly well in the footprint of that 55,000-acre fire. Most of the rest of the Glass fire is burning in areas with no recorded history of fires in the last 70 years.
At last count 80 residences and 33 other structures have been destroyed, with over 21,000 still threatened.
CAL FIRE reports the Glass Fire has burned 48,440 acres near Santa Rosa and Calistoga, California. Data from a Tuesday night mapping flight could bump that figure up another 5,000 acres.
Resources assigned to the fire include 25 hand crews, 261 fire engines, and 16 helicopters for a total of 2,099 personnel.
Eagle Field Fire Department firefighter Jeff Knobbe & Mark Jones extinguish hot spots using a restored 1942 firetruck during the Glass Fire in St. Helena, Calif., on Monday, Sept. 28, 2020. #glassfire #wildfire #napavalley #firefighters #wildlandfire pic.twitter.com/BX7Pq44Tof
— Jose Carlos Fajardo (@jcfphotog) September 29, 2020
#GlassFire in Deer Park, Napa Valley CA, fire damage on Mund Rd, the Mund Trailer Park is devastated with complete loss. Mutual aid fire crew from Pasadena CA monitoring 1/ pic.twitter.com/GgdtHggTjI
— craig philpott (@CphilpottCraig) September 30, 2020
