Wildfire Today

Joint Fire Science Program announces new funding for fuels treatment effectiveness

Bill GabbertNovember 14, 2022Uncategorizedfuel management, fuel treatment, research1 Comment

Funding for fuels research

Prescribed fire in Great Smoky Mountains NP — Prescribed fire in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, March 9, 2021. NPS photo.

The Joint Fire Science Program is offering grants for research into topics that can lead to more effective treatment of fuels. Examples include:

Longevity of fuel treatment effectiveness under climate change;
Fuels treatment effectiveness across landscapes;
Pre-fire management actions for reducing post-fire hazards; and
Social and political factors that influence fire suppression and rehabilitation costs.

The funding amounts for each of the four projects is expected to range from $300,000 to $500,000.

The new grant opportunities stem from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to advance research into wildfire prevention and post-fire restoration on federal lands.

The Joint Fire Science Program is accepting applications for grants to research innovative fuels treatments and post-fire rehabilitation efforts through Dec. 20, 2022, for fiscal year 2023.

Funding opportunities for wildland fire research priorities are posted on the Joint Fire Science Program’s website.

“With increasing wildfire activity due to climate change, it is imperative we fund research to better understand how to manage fire prone landscapes now and into the future,” said Grant Beebe, Bureau of Land Management assistant director of fire and aviation, based at the National Interagency Fire Center. “The Joint Fire Science Program brings the science and management community together in a unique, collaborative manner so that research can be used to make sound decisions on the ground.”

This funding is in addition to $3.4 billion in wildfire suppression and mitigation included in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

This includes investments such as:

• $600 million to increase federal firefighter salaries by up to $20,000/year and convert at least 1,000 seasonal firefighters to year-round positions.
• $500 million for hazardous fuels mitigation.
• $500 million for prescribed fires.
• $500 million for communities to implement their community wildfire defense plan, a collaborative plan to address local hazards and risks from wildfire.
• $500 million for developing control locations and installing fuel breaks.
• $100 million for preplanning fire response workshops and workforce training.
• $40 million for radio frequency interoperability and to create Reverse-911 systems.
• $20 million for NOAA to create a satellite that rapidly detects fires in areas the federal government has financial responsibility.
• $10 million to procure real-time wildfire detection and monitoring equipment in high-risk or post-burn areas.

Forest Service employee arrives at underage sex sting driving fire engine

Bill GabbertNovember 7, 2022November 10, 2022Uncategorizedarrested64 Comments

USFS employee shows up at sex sting in USFS engine — Mark McGill showed up at meeting site in USFS engine CA-CNF-323. Photo Fresno County Sheriff’s Office, via KPMH.

Monday morning at a press conference in Fresno, California several law enforcement agencies announced the arrests of 19 men following an undercover operation that led to the arrest of 19 men, would-be child sexual predators between November 2 and November 5.

The operation was conducted by undercover law enforcement officers pretending to be underage children the suspects talked to on social media. The suspects thought they were talking to boys and girls between 12 and 15 years old.

KMPH has a video of the press conference. At about 1:45 the Sheriff mentions the US Forest Service employee.

Mark McGill being taken into custody (Photo- Fresno County Sheriff’s Office via KMPH.

“One of the most notable arrests was that of 38-year old Mark McGill Jr. of Perris, California, a Forest Service Employee staying in the Fresno area,” said Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims. “He arrived at the meeting site in a department fire engine with the intent of having sex with a teenage girl.”

Researchers design model that they say predicts which buildings will survive wildfire

Bill GabbertNovember 7, 2022Uncategorizedresearch, structures burned, wildfire risk6 Comments

Wildfires may seem unpredictable, leaving random ruin in their wake. But it is based on science.

Coastal Fire, Orange County, CA, May 11, 2022. ABC7.

Six months ago we wrote about a project by the First Street Foundation which claimed to have developed a system for calculating the wildfire risk of 145 million properties in the United States.

We tested the system by entering property addresses for homes at two locations that were severely impacted by recent wildfires.

The Marshall Fire near Boulder, Colorado last year destroyed 1,091 homes and damaged 179. We looked up the Risk Factor for three properties in a community that had total destruction. The result was that they all had a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor”, and individually a 1.84, 2.0, 1.84 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years.
The Coastal Fire (see photo above) destroyed 20 homes in Laguna Niguel, California and damaged 11. The two we looked at in the zone with severe destruction received a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor” with a 0.93 and 1.54 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years. The homes were at the top of a steep brush-covered slope.

Another system

Colorado State University engineers have developed a model that they say can predict how wildfire will impact a community down to which buildings will burn. They say predicting damage to the built environment is essential to developing fire mitigation strategies and steps for recovery.

For years, Hussam Mahmoud, a Civil and Environmental Engineering professor, and postdoctoral fellow Akshat Chulahwat have been working on a model to measure the vulnerability of communities to wildfire. Most wildfire mitigation studies have focused on modeling fire behavior in the wildland; Mahmoud and Chulahwat’s model was the first to predict how a fire would progress through a community.

“We’re able to predict the most probable path the fire will take and how vulnerable each home is relative to the neighboring homes,” Mahmoud said. “We put a spin on the original model that allows us now to determine the level of damage in each building, whether the building will burn or survive.”

Using data from Technosylva, a wildfire science and technology company, Mahmoud and Chulahwat tested their model on the 2018 Camp Fire and 2020 Glass Fire in California. The model predicted which buildings burned and which survived with 58-64% accuracy. Since publishing their results in Scientific Reports, they have predicted which buildings burned with 86% accuracy for the Camp Fire by adjusting how the model weighs certain factors that contribute to damage.

Mahmoud says a holistic approach is needed to understand wildfire behavior and bolster resilience. Models that incorporate a community’s wildland and built environment features will give decision-makers the information needed to mitigate vulnerable areas.

Wildfire is like a disease

To develop their model, Mahmoud and Chulahwat employed graph theory, which is used to analyze networks. These methods also are used to study how diseases spread.

“Wildfire propagation in communities is similar to disease transmission in a social network,” Mahmoud said. Fire spreads from object to object in the same way contagions pass from one person to another.

Predicting survivability of structures in wildfire — Proposed relative vulnerability framework based on Degree $V_{m d}$ and Random walk $V_{m r w}$ concepts implemented on (a) formulated graphs of the selected testbeds. (b) The modified degree formulation involves the following steps—(1) neighboring nodes identification, (2) Removal of low-impact connections from neighbors, and (3) Relative Vulnerability calculation. (c) The modified random walk formulation includes—(1) Generation of random walks of specific step length for each node, (2) Transmissibility calculation based on random walks generated, (3) neighboring nodes identification, (4) Removal of low transmissibility neighbors, and (5) Relative vulnerability calculation.

Wildfire mitigation strategies are like the tactics used to control the spread of COVID-19, he said. A community’s immune system can be boosted by mapping a structure’s surroundings (contact tracing), clearing defensible space around structures (social distancing), reinforcing structures to be more fire resistant (immunization), and creating a buffer zone at the wildland-urban interface (closing borders).

Some homes are like super-spreaders — they are more at risk of fire and more likely to transmit fire to other homes. By targeting certain homes or areas for reinforcement, policymakers could maximize a community’s mitigation efforts, Mahmoud said.

As wildfire risk is compounded by more people moving to wildland-adjacent areas and climate change drying out the landscape in arid regions, the researchers hope their model will help protect communities from the devastating losses wrought by wildfires.

“Fire science is not rocket science—it’s way more complicated.”
Robert Essenhigh, Professor Emeritus, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Ohio State University.

Alberta donates engines and ambulances to Mexico

Bill GabbertNovember 4, 2022UncategorizedAlberta, Canada, Mexico4 Comments

Drove in a long convoy to Mazatlan

Canada gives engines ambulances to Mexico — Canadian engines and ambulances on their way from Alberta to be given to Mexico. Photo by Steve Holder, November 4, 2022.

During his annual southward migration, Steve Holder encountered a line of engines and ambulances at the US/Mexico border:

On the drive into Mexico today we stopped for our visitor visa and saw this long line of engines and ambulances. The Rotary Club from Grand Prairie, Alberta is taking them to Mazatlan where they will be distributed to areas of greatest need. These rigs are packed with lots of fire gear. Bunch of great Canadians doing good things- they seemed to be having fun!

Thank you Steve!

Union takes a position on the arrest of a firefighter during a prescribed fire

Bill GabbertNovember 2, 2022Uncategorizedarrested, escaped prescribed fire, Malheur National Forest, Oregon, prescribed fire33 Comments

Firefighter at the Starr 6 prescribed fire, Oct. 19, 2022. Tony Chiotti – Blue Mountain Eagle.

On November 2, 2022 the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) issued the following statement about the federal employee who was arrested by the Grant County Oregon sheriff last month. At the time the firefighter was running the operation as the Burn Boss on the Starr 6 prescribed fire when it grew unexpectedly and spread onto about 20 acres of private land.

Today, the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) strongly condemns the wrongful arrest of Rick Snodgrass, a U.S. Forest Service (USFS) wildland firefighter who was working as an active “burn boss” when taken into sheriff’s custody on October 19, 2022. At the time of his arrest, Firefighter Snodgrass, an Assistant Fire Management Officer, was working as the incident commander overseeing fire operations and containment efforts during a prescribed burn on the Malheur National Forest in Grant County, Oregon. Grant County Sheriff Todd McKinley arrested Firefighter Snodgrass during the burn operation after the fire unexpectedly jumped a roadway when wind picked up, causing the fire to burn several acres of grasslands on private property.

NFFE National President Randy Erwin released the following statement after the arrest of USFS Firefighter Snodgrass:

“It is unconscionable that a local sheriff would arrest a working wildland firefighter during an active fire operation. Not only did the sheriff exceed his authority in detaining Firefighter Snodgrass, in doing so, the sheriff put everyone and everything in danger by removing a working fire commander during a dangerous incident. Firefighter Snodgrass was arrested for simply doing his job.

“We applaud all of the wildland firefighters on the line that day who held their focus despite the Sheriff’s interference. Undeterred, they worked together to contain the blaze and finish the job. Our firefighters who conduct and lead prescribed burns, like Firefighter Snodgrass, are highly trained professionals. They know how to manage the most dangerous situations. Prescribed burns are essential to keeping communities across this country safe from wildfires. When dealing with unpredictable environmental conditions, it is always possible that a prescribed burn could spill over into an untargeted area. Normally when this happens, the government will address any damages to affected parties as appropriate. It is not normal for a local sheriff to arrest a working fire commander during an incident. In doing so, the sheriff may have violated federal law that makes it a felony to interfere with a federal employee during their official duties, and the sheriff may have opened the county to massive liability for a civil rights violation for unlawfully detaining and removing Firefighter Snodgrass.

“Firefighter Snodgrass has the full, unconditional support of your union, as does every federal wildland firefighter across this country. NFFE is calling on state and federal authorities to investigate the reckless actions of Sheriff McKinley to pursue any violation of civil and criminal law. This incident will not be swept under the rug. There must be consequences for this unprecedented abuse of power and incredibly dangerous disruption to the critical work of the Forest Service.

“We applaud the USDA and the USFS for expressing their full support of Firefighter Snodgrass in the performance of his official duties. NFFE will continue to follow this investigation and provide support to Firefighter Snodgrass to ensure that rogue sheriffs or any other person who threatens or impedes public servants answer for their actions.”

Western states drought continues, but wildfire threat eases

Bill GabbertNovember 1, 2022November 1, 2022Uncategorizedpotential, weather

The wildland fire potential released today by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts no above average wildfire potential for the 11 western states for the next four months through February, 2023. However the Gulf and Southeast coasts will remain high during the entire period. It will also be high in the Southeast and the Mississippi Valley in November.

The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.

Below:

Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
Soil moisture.

“Drought now covers nearly two-thirds of the contiguous US. Drought continues in much of the West, with expanding and intensifying drought in portions of the Northwest due to warmer and drier than normal conditions in October, including record setting temperatures.

“Near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are forecast from the Northwest through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Below normal precipitation is likely from southern California and the Southwest through the southern Plains to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts through winter. Above normal temperatures through the winter are likely across California, the southern Rockies into Texas, and along the Gulf and East Coasts.

“Above normal significant potential is forecast for the Hawai’ian Islands for November before returning to normal potential through winter. The Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Mid-Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians and northern Gulf Coast are forecast to have above normal potential in November before mostly returning to normal for winter as well.

“In December, above normal significant fire potential will remain across the Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast, with above normal potential remaining near the northern Gulf Coast in January. Above normal significant fire potential is then forecast to expand into southeast New Mexico, south and west Texas, southwest Florida, and the Southeast coastal plain in February.”

Wildfire Outlook, December through February

90- day Precip - Temperature forecast, issued Oct 20, 2022 — 90- day Precip – Temperature forecast, issued Oct 20, 2022

Soil moisture, calculated anomaly, Oct. 31, 2022

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