Mark McGill showed up at meeting site in USFS engine CA-CNF-323. Photo Fresno County Sheriff’s Office, via KPMH.
Monday morning at a press conference in Fresno, California several law enforcement agencies announced the arrests of 19 men following an undercover operation that led to the arrest of 19 men, would-be child sexual predators between November 2 and November 5.
The operation was conducted by undercover law enforcement officers pretending to be underage children the suspects talked to on social media. The suspects thought they were talking to boys and girls between 12 and 15 years old.
KMPH has a video of the press conference. At about 1:45 the Sheriff mentions the US Forest Service employee.
Mark McGill being taken into custody (Photo- Fresno County Sheriff’s Office via KMPH.
“One of the most notable arrests was that of 38-year old Mark McGill Jr. of Perris, California, a Forest Service Employee staying in the Fresno area,” said Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims. “He arrived at the meeting site in a department fire engine with the intent of having sex with a teenage girl.”
Wildfires may seem unpredictable, leaving random ruin in their wake. But it is based on science.
Coastal Fire, Orange County, CA, May 11, 2022. ABC7.
Six months ago we wrote about a project by the First Street Foundation which claimed to have developed a system for calculating the wildfire risk of 145 million properties in the United States.
We tested the system by entering property addresses for homes at two locations that were severely impacted by recent wildfires.
The Marshall Fire near Boulder, Colorado last year destroyed 1,091 homes and damaged 179. We looked up the Risk Factor for three properties in a community that had total destruction. The result was that they all had a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor”, and individually a 1.84, 2.0, 1.84 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years.
The Coastal Fire(see photo above) destroyed 20 homes in Laguna Niguel, California and damaged 11. The two we looked at in the zone with severe destruction received a 3 of 10 “moderate fire factor” with a 0.93 and 1.54 percent chance of being in a wildfire over the next 30 years. The homes were at the top of a steep brush-covered slope.
Another system
Colorado State University engineers have developed a model that they say can predict how wildfire will impact a community down to which buildings will burn. They say predicting damage to the built environment is essential to developing fire mitigation strategies and steps for recovery.
For years, Hussam Mahmoud, a Civil and Environmental Engineering professor, and postdoctoral fellow Akshat Chulahwat have been working on a model to measure the vulnerability of communities to wildfire. Most wildfire mitigation studies have focused on modeling fire behavior in the wildland; Mahmoud and Chulahwat’s model was the first to predict how a fire would progress through a community.
“We’re able to predict the most probable path the fire will take and how vulnerable each home is relative to the neighboring homes,” Mahmoud said. “We put a spin on the original model that allows us now to determine the level of damage in each building, whether the building will burn or survive.”
Using data from Technosylva, a wildfire science and technology company, Mahmoud and Chulahwat tested their model on the 2018 Camp Fire and 2020 Glass Fire in California. The model predicted which buildings burned and which survived with 58-64% accuracy. Since publishing their results in Scientific Reports, they have predicted which buildings burned with 86% accuracy for the Camp Fire by adjusting how the model weighs certain factors that contribute to damage.
Mahmoud says a holistic approach is needed to understand wildfire behavior and bolster resilience. Models that incorporate a community’s wildland and built environment features will give decision-makers the information needed to mitigate vulnerable areas.
Wildfire is like a disease
To develop their model, Mahmoud and Chulahwat employed graph theory, which is used to analyze networks. These methods also are used to study how diseases spread.
“Wildfire propagation in communities is similar to disease transmission in a social network,” Mahmoud said. Fire spreads from object to object in the same way contagions pass from one person to another.
Proposed relative vulnerability framework based on Degree ??? and Random walk ???? concepts implemented on (a) formulated graphs of the selected testbeds. (b) The modified degree formulation involves the following steps—(1) neighboring nodes identification, (2) Removal of low-impact connections from neighbors, and (3) Relative Vulnerability calculation. (c) The modified random walk formulation includes—(1) Generation of random walks of specific step length for each node, (2) Transmissibility calculation based on random walks generated, (3) neighboring nodes identification, (4) Removal of low transmissibility neighbors, and (5) Relative vulnerability calculation.
Wildfire mitigation strategies are like the tactics used to control the spread of COVID-19, he said. A community’s immune system can be boosted by mapping a structure’s surroundings (contact tracing), clearing defensible space around structures (social distancing), reinforcing structures to be more fire resistant (immunization), and creating a buffer zone at the wildland-urban interface (closing borders).
Some homes are like super-spreaders — they are more at risk of fire and more likely to transmit fire to other homes. By targeting certain homes or areas for reinforcement, policymakers could maximize a community’s mitigation efforts, Mahmoud said.
As wildfire risk is compounded by more people moving to wildland-adjacent areas and climate change drying out the landscape in arid regions, the researchers hope their model will help protect communities from the devastating losses wrought by wildfires.
“Fire science is not rocket science—it’s way more complicated.”
Robert Essenhigh, Professor Emeritus, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Ohio State University.
Canadian engines and ambulances on their way from Alberta to be given to Mexico. Photo by Steve Holder, November 4, 2022.
During his annual southward migration, Steve Holder encountered a line of engines and ambulances at the US/Mexico border:
On the drive into Mexico today we stopped for our visitor visa and saw this long line of engines and ambulances. The Rotary Club from Grand Prairie, Alberta is taking them to Mazatlan where they will be distributed to areas of greatest need. These rigs are packed with lots of fire gear. Bunch of great Canadians doing good things- they seemed to be having fun!
Canadian engines and ambulances on their way from Alberta to be given to Mexico. Photo by Steve Holder, November 4, 2022.Canadian engines and ambulances on their way from Alberta to be given to Mexico. Photo by Steve Holder, November 4, 2022.
Firefighter at the Starr 6 prescribed fire, Oct. 19, 2022. Tony Chiotti – Blue Mountain Eagle.
On November 2, 2022 the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) issued the following statement about the federal employee who was arrested by the Grant County Oregon sheriff last month. At the time the firefighter was running the operation as the Burn Boss on the Starr 6 prescribed fire when it grew unexpectedly and spread onto about 20 acres of private land.
Today, the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) strongly condemns the wrongful arrest of Rick Snodgrass, a U.S. Forest Service (USFS) wildland firefighter who was working as an active “burn boss” when taken into sheriff’s custody on October 19, 2022. At the time of his arrest, Firefighter Snodgrass, an Assistant Fire Management Officer, was working as the incident commander overseeing fire operations and containment efforts during a prescribed burn on the Malheur National Forest in Grant County, Oregon. Grant County Sheriff Todd McKinley arrested Firefighter Snodgrass during the burn operation after the fire unexpectedly jumped a roadway when wind picked up, causing the fire to burn several acres of grasslands on private property.
NFFE National President Randy Erwin released the following statement after the arrest of USFS Firefighter Snodgrass:
“It is unconscionable that a local sheriff would arrest a working wildland firefighter during an active fire operation. Not only did the sheriff exceed his authority in detaining Firefighter Snodgrass, in doing so, the sheriff put everyone and everything in danger by removing a working fire commander during a dangerous incident. Firefighter Snodgrass was arrested for simply doing his job.
“We applaud all of the wildland firefighters on the line that day who held their focus despite the Sheriff’s interference. Undeterred, they worked together to contain the blaze and finish the job. Our firefighters who conduct and lead prescribed burns, like Firefighter Snodgrass, are highly trained professionals. They know how to manage the most dangerous situations. Prescribed burns are essential to keeping communities across this country safe from wildfires. When dealing with unpredictable environmental conditions, it is always possible that a prescribed burn could spill over into an untargeted area. Normally when this happens, the government will address any damages to affected parties as appropriate. It is not normal for a local sheriff to arrest a working fire commander during an incident. In doing so, the sheriff may have violated federal law that makes it a felony to interfere with a federal employee during their official duties, and the sheriff may have opened the county to massive liability for a civil rights violation for unlawfully detaining and removing Firefighter Snodgrass.
“Firefighter Snodgrass has the full, unconditional support of your union, as does every federal wildland firefighter across this country. NFFE is calling on state and federal authorities to investigate the reckless actions of Sheriff McKinley to pursue any violation of civil and criminal law. This incident will not be swept under the rug. There must be consequences for this unprecedented abuse of power and incredibly dangerous disruption to the critical work of the Forest Service.
“We applaud the USDA and the USFS for expressing their full support of Firefighter Snodgrass in the performance of his official duties. NFFE will continue to follow this investigation and provide support to Firefighter Snodgrass to ensure that rogue sheriffs or any other person who threatens or impedes public servants answer for their actions.”
The wildland fire potential released today by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts no above average wildfire potential for the 11 western states for the next four months through February, 2023. However the Gulf and Southeast coasts will remain high during the entire period. It will also be high in the Southeast and the Mississippi Valley in November.
The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.
Below:
Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
Soil moisture.
“Drought now covers nearly two-thirds of the contiguous US. Drought continues in much of the West, with expanding and intensifying drought in portions of the Northwest due to warmer and drier than normal conditions in October, including record setting temperatures.
“Near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation are forecast from the Northwest through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Below normal precipitation is likely from southern California and the Southwest through the southern Plains to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts through winter. Above normal temperatures through the winter are likely across California, the southern Rockies into Texas, and along the Gulf and East Coasts.
“Above normal significant potential is forecast for the Hawai’ian Islands for November before returning to normal potential through winter. The Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Mid-Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians and northern Gulf Coast are forecast to have above normal potential in November before mostly returning to normal for winter as well.
“In December, above normal significant fire potential will remain across the Lower Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf Coast, with above normal potential remaining near the northern Gulf Coast in January. Above normal significant fire potential is then forecast to expand into southeast New Mexico, south and west Texas, southwest Florida, and the Southeast coastal plain in February.”
Wildfire Outlook, December through February90- day Precip – Temperature forecast, issued Oct 20, 2022Drought monitor, Oct. 25, 2022Drought Outlook, Oct. 31, 2022
Smoke at the Beaver Fire in Northern California, August 12, 2014. Photo by Bill Gabbert.
Immune cells that normally protect against inflammation and infections can be altered by wildfire smoke to promote inflammation. A long list of diseases are associated with inflammation. Studies have shown that healthy individuals and those with pre-existing conditions are affected by the very small PM2.5 particles produced by wildfire smoke.
Forecast for the distribution of smoke at 4 a.m. PDT October 26, 2019 in the San Francisco area and south as far as Santa Maria.
Below are excerpts from an article written by Tori Rodriguez first published in Pulmonology Advisor. It covers the effects of smoke on humans and suggests what could be done to mitigate the potential damage. One idea is for fire and local officials when considering evacuation guidelines to plan for not only the dangers of flames, but also the effects of smoke.
[With wildfires increasing] and the health issues that result, there is a real and growing need for clinicians to educate at-risk patients, according to Jennifer Stowell, PhD, a postdoctoral researcher in the department of environmental health at the Boston University School of Public Health and co-author of a recent study on the health effects of wildfires.2 “For clinicians, education of patients is paramount, especially for those with already compromised health,” said Dr Stowell.
Healthy individuals may also experience health consequences from wildfires, according to Angela Haczku, MD, PhD, professor of medicine at the University of California, Davis, School of Medicine and director of the UC Davis Lung Center. “During the 2020 California wildfire season, my team conducted a study on healthy individuals and found alarmingly increased numbers of abnormal, activated immune cells in the peripheral blood.3 These cells are normally responsible for protecting against inflammation and infections, but when altered by inhalation of wildfire smoke, they become the ones promoting inflammation,” she explained.
Research exposes burning issues
The vast majority of recent US wildfires have been concentrated in western states, including Washington (218 fires), California (153 fires), Montana (141 fires), and Utah (130 fires).1 Estimates show that more than 70,000 wildfires have burned an average of 7 million acres in the US annually since the year 2000.4
In addition to this geographic damage, a sizeable body of research has detailed the negative human health effects resulting from exposure to wildfire smoke:
In a study published in June 2022, Heaney et al found that “smoke event” days — those with the highest amounts of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) from wildfires — were linked to increases in unscheduled hospital visits in California for all respiratory diseases (3.3%; 95% CI, 0.4%-6.3%) as well as asthma specifically (10.3%; 95% CI, 2.3%-19.0%), with the largest effect observed among children ages 0 to 5 years with asthma.2
Stratified analyses demonstrated increased visits for all cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart disease, and heart failure among non‐Hispanic White patients and individuals older than 65 years. The findings further suggested that the interaction between wildfire PM2.5 concentrations and high temperatures may further increase the need for hospital visits among patients with cardiovascular disease.
A 2022 scoping review found evidence of increased population-level mortality, respiratory morbidity, and rates of various types of cancer in association with exposure to PM2.5 and chemicals from wildfire smoke.5
Findings from a 2021 study indicate that particulate matter from wildfire smoke has a greater effect on respiratory health than particulate matter from other sources of emission, based on a comparison of the increase in respiratory hospitalizations associated with increases in wildfire-specific PM2.5 (increase in hospitalizations ranging from 1.3% to 10%) and non-wildfire PM2.5 (increase in hospitalizations from 0.67% to 1.3%) in Southern California.6
Research published in 2021 showed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in wildfire PM2.5 was correlated with increased hospitalizations for all respiratory diseases, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and ischemic heart disease in Colorado. Wildfire PM2.5 was also associated with an increase in deaths due to asthma and myocardial infarction.7
Other results reported in 2021 linked wildfire PM.2.5 exposure in Alaska to elevated odds of asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits among various population, with odds ratios ranging from 1.10 (95% CI, 1.05-1.15) to 1.16 (95% CI, 1.09-1.23).8
A 2018 study analyzed data pertaining to 21,353 inpatient hospitalizations, 25,922 ED presentations, and 297,698 outpatient visits during periods of heightened smoke exposure from the 2007 San Diego wildfires. The results demonstrated a 34% increase in ED visits for respiratory diagnoses and a 112% increase in ED visits for asthma. Even greater increases in ED visits were observed among children aged 0 to 4 years with respiratory diagnoses (73% increase) and in children aged 0 to 1 year with asthma (243% increase).9
Studies have also demonstrated increases in ED visits and hospitalization rates for asthma and other respiratory diseases in relation to wildfire PM2.5 in states such as Oregon and Nevada.10,11
Additionally, findings from multiple studies point to a potential connection between wildfire smoke exposure and higher rates of COVID-19 infection and associated mortality. In 1 study, researchers found that COVID-19 cases and related deaths increased by 56.9% and 148.2%, respectively, after the onset of the California wildfires that began in September 2020 compared with the period of time from the onset of the pandemic to just before the wildfires began.12
Results of another recent study suggest that “wildfire smoke inhalation sequesters activated, pro-inflammatory [natural killer] cells to the affected tissue compartments and may interfere with [COVID-19] vaccine effectiveness,” according to the authors.13
We interviewed Drs Stowell and Haczku to find out more about what clinicians need to know about the health effects of wildfires. Notably, Dr Haczku recently chaired the 2022 third annual NorCal Symposium on Climate, Health, and Equity.
“The size of the particulate matter is important….Particles larger than 10 micrometers in diameter are deposited in the nose, mouth, and upper airways, while PM2.5 is sucked directly down to the alveoli…causing disruption and inflammation.”
Dr Angela Haczku, Director of the University of California Davis Lung Center and chair of the 2022 NorCal Symposium on Climate, Health, and Equity.
What is known about the health effects of exposure to wildfire smoke?
Dr Stowell: Several studies have investigated the health effects of wildfire smoke and have linked smoke exposure to respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and birth outcomes such as preterm birth and low birth weight.14 Several gaps remain, including a better understanding of indoor air quality during wildfire events, the risk to outdoor workers, pregnancy complications, and mental health.
Dr Haczku: Wildfire smoke contains particulate matter of varying sizes, usually classified into PM10 and PM2.5 and ozone (O3) and nitrogen-containing toxic gases. All of these are combined with volatile organic chemicals that fuel the flames, the quality and quantity of which depend on whether what is burning comes from wild land, urban areas, or combined areas.
The size of the particulate matter is important because it determines where in the respiratory tract it will end. Particles larger than 10 micrometers in diameter (PM10) are deposited in the nose, mouth, and upper airways, while PM2.5 is sucked directly down to the alveoli, the tiny sacs responsible for our breathing, causing disruption and inflammation.
These particles are also carriers of inflammatory, allergenic, infectious, and toxic molecules causing both acute and chronic illnesses.
The most affected and best-studied organs susceptible to wildfire smoke are the respiratory tract and the cardiovascular system. Most ED visits are related to exacerbations of asthma and COPD and heart conditions such as coronary disease. Respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization rates are well-known to be increased during wildfires. Affected adults and children also often suffer from anxiety and other mental health conditions. These conditions and the long-term health effects of wildfires are less studied and poorly understood.
What are the implications of these effects for health care systems?
Dr Stowell: Increasing wildfire activity due to climate change will continue to exacerbate these issues. Wildfire smoke exposure used to be thought of as an issue for the western US. However, as seen in the past several years, smoke from large fires and complex fires can reach across the continental US, exposing many individuals to harmful pollutants. Even with this wider spread of smoke, exposure will continue to have the greatest effect on the health of communities close in proximity to the fires, where smoke density is the heaviest.
Often the communities most affected are rural and face distance barriers to accessing proper health care. Thus, the health care systems in these already underserved areas could face capacity and response issues as wildfire smoke exposure continues to increase in western US states.
Dr Haczku: The effect of wildfire smoke on respiratory, cardiovascular, mental, and general health could be alleviated through specific interventions. As such, wildfire-related disasters provide health care systems with an opportunity to take a proactive role. Health care professionals should strategically and intentionally prepare for wildfire smoke events. Educational material should be prepared using professional society-approved guidelines and toolkits. These also need to be translated into the languages of and distributed to patients and potentially affected communities as well as the general public.
Having an efficient local system in place for timely warnings to reduce time spent outdoors during wildfire smoke events is crucial. Preventive measures in schools and indoor public places such as improved air filtration systems should be installed.
What are recommendations or considerations for clinicians to keep in mind when caring for patients in areas most affected by wildfires?
Dr Stowell: Education of patients is paramount. Some other steps could include considering temporary staff increases during wildfire seasons, ensuring the clinic staff are well-educated regarding wildfire smoke safety measures, and partnering with communities to provide clean air options for their patients.
Dr Haczku: In addition to intensive management of risk factors and chronic diseases, I believe implementing preventive measures are the most important. For example, professionals need to make sure that timely public warnings of smoke events are in place. Clinicians and health care workers should have a database that can be used to identify and reach out to vulnerable populations including pregnant women, children, the elderly, and farm and construction workers. Education of these communities and individuals can prevent emergency situations. Susceptible patients suffering from chronic illnesses and workers who cannot avoid outdoor activities may require help with fitting personal respirators and devices and specific consultation by health care workers.
What broader measures are needed to buffer the effects of wildfire smoke exposure and protect vulnerable populations, such as those with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases?
Dr Stowell: Much more needs to be done to plan for these large fire events. This planning includes focusing efforts in the areas most often affected by smoke through increasing health care system capacity, forming mobile health response teams, proper community education, better guidelines for evacuation (as most evacuations are intended to avoid the flames and not the smoke). Another need is access to clean air options, such as providing clean air centers and affordable access to air purification technology, including air conditioning and HEPA filtration.
Dr Haczku: As a health care educator, administrator, and climate change researcher, I see an urgent unmet need for the education of health care professionals about the effects of wildfires and, more generally, of climate change on human health. Vulnerable subjects, especially patients suffering from chronic health conditions, should be identified and educated. Improving advocacy toolkits and updating evidence-based professional guidelines for disease management and preventive interventions to reduce risk and protect health is imperative.
Research efforts to study and better understand wildfire smoke-induced pathologies as well as research to investigate the effectiveness of novel interventions should be better supported.
